Across the continent, governments have been intensifying preparations to counter drone strikes, cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and other activities they categorise as hybrid threats attributed to Russia.

On 18 September, French President Emmanuel Macron conveyed an advisory to party leaders following a briefing session held at the Élysée Palace. He noted that activities posing a hybrid threat from Russia toward France and Europe had grown over the preceding weeks. Macron directed officials to draw up contingency measures shielding key infrastructure and sensitive defence and technology installations from potential drone and cyber threats.

Macron also noted that Europe should not count on prior notice if Russia transitions from covert operations to an overt military assault. The remarks followed a gathering of the French Defence and National Security Council, alongside a number of unexplained incidents that had been recorded across Europe.

He pointed to an incident that took place in Leipzig, Germany, in August, involving a drone carrying explosives that was linked by reports to the GRU, the military intelligence arm of Russia. Macron stated that while the attack fell short of its objective, it had the potential to inflict substantial harm and destruction. Drone violations of airspace across a number of European nations were also among the issues he raised.

Macron stated that the episodes demonstrate European nations cannot presume they are shielded from such risks, and he called for heightened alertness, noting that a physical assault could occur without prior notice. The situation was framed as a hybrid threat, with no indication that an all-out armed conflict with Russia was on the horizon.

Governments across Europe have expressed heightened alarm over hybrid threats — including cyberattacks, sabotage operations, disinformation campaigns, espionage, and drone activity — that have the potential to undermine vital infrastructure outside the bounds of traditional warfare. Among the episodes recorded lately were probes into potential acts of sabotage, disruptions to rail networks, and a number of events whose causes remain unestablished.

Regulators have taken a measured approach by distinguishing between unverified suspicion and formally confirmed attribution, rather than publicly naming Russia as the source of every incident.

This issue holds particular relevance for NATO. A military assault on any NATO member state may invoke the alliance's collective defence consultations under Article 5, though the treaty stops short of mandating a uniform military response in all circumstances. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has raised the prospect of aerial attacks by Russia targeting nations that back Ukraine. Although European nations have been stepping up their military preparedness, no formal assessment has concluded that Russia is actively planning a near-term conventional attack on NATO member states.

The UK, for instance, has advised residents to stock up on essential preparedness items, including non-perishable food, drinking water, medical supplies, and torches. A public preparedness survey for 2026 revealed that 28% of those polled considered it likely or very likely that armed conflict could reach their local area within two years, a rise from 19% the previous year. A total of 10,791 adults across the UK took part in the poll.

Governments across Europe have been bolstering both their defence capabilities and civilian preparedness. Paris is moving to safeguard vital national infrastructure, while Macron has connected European security considerations to ongoing backing for Ukraine.