Governments across Europe are intensifying contingency planning in response to assessments by continental officials that Russia may deploy an expanding range of tactics — including drone strikes, missile launches, sabotage operations, and cyberattacks — to probe NATO member states and exert pressure over their backing of Ukraine. On 17 September, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that intelligence assessments pointed to the possibility of Russia launching drone or missile strikes against nations backing Ukraine over the coming months, with such incidents potentially staged to appear unintentional; addressing parliament, Tusk noted that projectiles of various kinds entering the territory of one or more countries along the eastern flank — and causing damage — posed a genuine risk, and that such events could be designed to erode the readiness of alliance members to act in a unified manner. The following day, Kestutis Budrys, Lithuania's foreign minister, indicated that his country had access to the same intelligence available to Poland and other allied nations. The spokesperson noted that government representatives had examined the potential for a Russian deception operation, characterising the public statements as an attempt to discourage Moscow from pursuing such an action. On 18 September, Macron stated that hybrid activities attributed to Russia had grown in scale and scope, affecting France and other nations across Europe. Following consultations with political leaders at the Élysée Palace, Macron directed the government to draw up expanded safeguards for essential infrastructure and defence-industry facilities vulnerable to drone and cyber threats. In a separate address, President Alexander Stubb called on the population to be psychologically ready for potential sabotage attempts and drone activity, while also advising against an outsized response and encouraging composure. Expanded civil-defence measures have been put in place alongside the elevated advisories. Planning exercises in both nations have addressed wartime readiness, with one country assessing hospital capacity under conflict and mass-casualty conditions while another has drawn up contingency routes from its capital toward a neighbouring border for use during armed or civil emergencies. On 18 September, the Federal Council approved its Security Policy Strategy 2026, marking a step toward bolstering the defence posture of the non-NATO nation. The document lists armed conflict involving Russia, hybrid threats, and vulnerabilities stemming from external dependencies among the principal risks to Switzerland's security. The plan aims to address weaknesses across the state, economy, and society, enhance protection for civilians and essential infrastructure, and bolster Switzerland's capacity to repel an armed attack. Ten objectives and 46 measures form the backbone of the strategy, with rollout already under way. Switzerland's defence authorities consider a direct military assault on the nation to be improbable in the near term, though they note the country remains exposed to long-range strike capabilities, including drones and ballistic missiles. The revised approach places emphasis on defending against hybrid threats and long-range strikes, while deepening collaboration with allied nations. The alliance simultaneously broadened its attention to the protection of civilian populations. The alliance released its baseline resilience standards on 17 September, directing member states to safeguard the continuity of vital services — including energy, water, telecommunications, food supply chains, and healthcare — throughout periods of instability or armed conflict. NATO has not indicated that any Russian military action against an alliance member is forthcoming, even as alerts from various quarters have continued to mount. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that Russia's behaviour has grown more unpredictable, citing instances of drones and missiles crossing into allied airspace alongside suspected hostile activities directed at European infrastructure. The alliance was reinforcing both its deterrence posture and resilience, he noted, while maintaining ongoing backing for Ukraine.
