Leaders across Poland, France, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Finland have raised concerns about a potential increase in Russian hybrid activities directed at nations backing Ukraine. These events follow a series of reported incidents across Europe, including alleged airspace breaches, suspected acts of sabotage, and various other security-related concerns.
NATO's assessment has remained cautious, drawing a distinction between the expanding threat posed by hybrid operations and the likelihood of an imminent direct military confrontation, even as heads of state have urged greater alertness.
On Thursday, 17 September, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Russia may carry out hybrid operations using drones and missiles against nations backing Ukraine, Poland among them, over the months ahead. Referencing intelligence assessments, Tusk indicated that any such attacks could be disguised as unintentional, with the aim of gauging NATO's reaction and eroding the alliance's commitment to collective defence. Tusk told parliament that the suspected attacks may be aimed at disabling or undermining NATO member states' readiness to activate the alliance's collective defence clauses in response to aggression.
The notice follows reported concerns over alleged Russian covert activities and incidents along European frontiers. The Kremlin has rejected allegations that it played any part in acts of sabotage.
On Friday, 18 September, Emmanuel Macron held a meeting with political leaders and presidential candidates, during which he voiced concerns about the prevailing security situation. Discussions centred on Ukraine, Iran, and energy developments, along with questions of European security. Macron characterised Tusk's assessments as credible and well-supported, adding that Russia's hybrid operations targeting France and other European nations had escalated over the preceding weeks. A programme to bolster the defences of essential infrastructure against outside threats was also outlined.
Rob Jetten echoed the view that Tusk's remarks deserved attention, underlining that European nations needed to make clear they would not tolerate such conduct and stood ready to act if the situation demanded it. President Alexander Stubb called on the public to be psychologically ready for potential disruptions, including acts of sabotage and drone operations attributed to Russia.
NATO's official stance has drawn a distinction between the observed uptick in hybrid activities and an imminent threat of conventional military action against alliance territory, even as national leaders have voiced concerns. Such operations may encompass electronic intrusions, acts of physical sabotage, coordinated disinformation efforts, unmanned aerial incursions, and a range of tactics aimed at eroding public safety or weakening governmental structures. The bloc has drawn attention to an expanding array of such risks, encompassing attacks on infrastructure and breaches of sovereign airspace.
The alliance has reaffirmed its pledge to protect all member territories from potential threats, as officials across Europe hold ongoing talks on bolstering coordination and countering hybrid operations. Across Europe, nations including Lithuania have revised evacuation protocols and run civil-defence drills, while authorities in Germany are assessing hospital capacity and readiness to handle large-scale casualty events.
Military drills by alliance forces in the Baltic area underline the emphasis placed on readiness along the eastern border of the bloc. Britain affirmed its dedication to shared defence, noting that while it holds no desire for confrontation, it stands ready to coordinate with partner nations in safeguarding NATO territory. The Ministry of Defence stated that the United Kingdom remained committed to protecting all alliance territory in coordination with partner nations.
