The National Federation of Independent Business recorded a Small Business Optimism Index reading of 97.9 for September, a decline of 0.8 points from the prior month and just below the 52-year historical average of 98.0. A separate gauge tracking uncertainty among owners about future conditions and decisions climbed one point from August to reach 90, remaining noticeably above the long-run average of 68.

The September reading placed small-business confidence below its long-run historical average, with owners pointing to heightened unpredictability, sustained price pressures, and a shortage of adequately skilled labour as key contributors. Of the ten measures tracked within the index, three moved in a positive direction, six posted declines, and one held steady, the report found.

Behind the overall decline sat two converging pressures: owners reporting a dimmer outlook for business conditions ahead, and a narrower pool of respondents who viewed the timing as favourable for taking on expansion.

Inflation topped the list of pressing concerns for one in five business owners that September, a share four percentage points higher than the month before. Rising costs continued to put pressure on small-business owners. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 31 per cent of owners — measured on a net basis — had lifted their average selling prices, with an identical share indicating they intended to push prices higher across the following three months.

Ongoing strains across the jobs market were among the findings the report drew attention to. Roughly one in four small-business owners — a share that climbed three percentage points from August — pointed to the quality or availability of workers as their top concern. Of those surveyed, about one in three flagged vacancies they could not get filled, a share that narrowed by three percentage points against the prior month's reading.

Appetite among businesses for new investment pulled back. Fewer than a quarter of owners — a share that slipped two percentage points from the August reading — indicated they had earmarked funds for capital expenditure in the coming six months. Funds directed toward durable business assets — machinery, transport vehicles, and physical premises — fall under the umbrella of capital expenditure. Among small-business owners surveyed, 51 per cent had put money into capital expenditure across the preceding six months, a share that slipped two percentage points below the August reading.

Among business owners surveyed, the share recording favourable profit momentum edged down by one percentage point. Of the businesses reporting a fall in earnings, weaker demand was behind the drop for roughly a third, while nearly a quarter pointed to higher costs for raw materials.

Owners' assessments of their own business health painted a divided picture for September, with the share rating conditions as excellent climbing two percentage points to 13 per cent, while those describing their position as good fell nine points to 48 per cent. Of the remainder, just over a third rated their operations as fair, while one in 25 placed them in the poor category.

Data for the NFIB report came from a survey carried out among respondents in the United States during September 2026. Of the 5,000 small-business owners contacted for the study, 411 returned completed questionnaires, a participation rate of 8.2 per cent. Survey data covering the start of September pointed to US small businesses carrying lower confidence into the month, alongside heightened uncertainty and persistent strain tied to pricing pressures, workforce gaps, and operating costs.

The National Federation of Independent Business is the leading membership and lobbying organisation for small-business owners in the United States. Established by C Wilson Harder in 1943, the group operates as a nonprofit body drawing membership from small and independent business owners across all 50 states, with its rolls running into the hundreds of thousands.