New Zealand Business Confidence Dips Slightly in September Amid Ongoing Economic Recovery

New Zealand's ANZ Business Outlook survey recorded a business confidence rating of +52 in September, marginally lower than August's +53.7. Rising oil prices during the month weighed on activity indicators, though inflation expectations held steady at 3.25%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% on September 2. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman described the recovery as "bumpy" and noted that business responses to ongoing uncertainty will shape the economy's trajectory through the end of 2026.

The ANZ Business Outlook survey recorded a modest decline in business confidence for September, pointing to an uneven pace of economic recovery. Each month, ANZ polls around 1,500 businesses across New Zealand to gauge economic expectations for the year ahead, publishing its findings in a regular monthly report. The survey's business confidence index registered a reading of +52 for September, a marginal dip from the +53.7 recorded the previous month. Reported past activity eased five points to a reading of plus 11, while ANZ senior economist Miles Workman noted that the survey continued to reflect a gradual recovery, with a number of firms recording stronger output than the prior year, adding that the uneven rebound was ongoing; it was also noted that although most responses had been collected around 1 September, approximately one quarter arrived only after a follow-up reminder was issued three weeks later. Surveys collected later that month — following a renewed climb in oil prices — pointed to reduced business activity, while measures of costs and pricing held steady or declined. Dubai spot oil prices climbed from US$100 per barrel at the beginning of the month to a high of US$128, before retreating to US$111 around the September 22 notification date, with the benchmark sitting at approximately US$107.7 per barrel at time of writing. Inflation expectations held at 3.25% through the mid-month oil price rise, Workman noted, while cost expectations climbed one point to a net 82% anticipating higher costs and pricing intentions pulled back three points to a net 48% planning to lift prices. He noted that stable inflation indicators throughout the period offered some reassurance to the Reserve Bank, though cautioned that findings remained preliminary; the survey data spans responses gathered both before and after the RBNZ lifted the OCR by 25 basis points, moving it from 2.50% to 2.75% on 2 September. Although inflation expectations remained stable in ANZ's September business outlook survey, rising oil prices through the month weighed on all activity measures except investment, and Workman noted that while the data pointed to a renewed confidence effect from higher oil costs, late-month activity readings were far above the troughs recorded in late March and into April, with the trajectory of business responses to this uncertainty carrying direct consequences for economic performance through the remainder of 2026, given that some sectors retain strong momentum even as others face notable headwinds. He noted that delaying action until all uncertainty is resolved amounts to choosing inaction, potentially for an extended period.

New Zealand Business Confidence Dips Slightly in September Amid Ongoing Economic Recovery

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New Zealand Business Confidence Dips Slightly in September Amid Ongoing Economic Recovery

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