At the SNP conference, First Minister John Swinney is expected to argue that conditions are falling into place for Scottish independence. Swinney is expected to tell audiences that unionist support is wavering and that the case for Scottish independence has gained ground — a position that polling released this week complicates, with multiple surveys finding the country remains broadly split over its constitutional future.

Polling conducted by Survation on behalf of the SNP put backing for independence at 52 per cent. Two polling organisations arrived at broadly similar conclusions: YouGov put the No vote at 53 per cent, while More in Common recorded backing for staying within the UK at 52 per cent.

Polling data point to no clear consensus among people in Scotland on how highly they rank the question of independence. A YouGov poll placed that concern among the nation's top priorities for just 17 per cent of respondents. Data gathered by More in Common placed the issue twelfth out of all topics surveyed, with only around one in ten respondents including it among their three foremost concerns — a frequency roughly six times lower than that recorded for cost of living.

Polling carried out by Survation on behalf of Scotland in Union placed the cost of living among the top three concerns for 68 per cent of respondents when asked about Scottish Government priorities, while a further referendum on independence was chosen by just 11 per cent.

Addressing party delegates, Swinney planned to contend that conditions were converging in favour of independence, and intended to tell the gathering that the election outcome — along with the trust placed in the party by voters across Scotland — had opened a path toward two distinct actions. The aim, the party stated, is to raise living standards for people in the present. The party argued that Scottish independence represented the path toward building the strongest possible future for the country.

The party's official contended that an electoral loss in that period would have set the independence cause back by roughly a generation. The statement attributed the intensity of opposition pressure to the same reasoning, while adding that the course set had not been abandoned despite it. The organisation's stated direction continues to be guided by the principles, convictions, and founding purpose it has long held.

The rival side has grown noticeably more anxious in its tactics, according to the party's spokesperson, who indicated that momentum had shifted in their favour. At Holyrood, the parties aligned with Westminster hold a notably reduced presence compared with previous parliamentary periods. The First Ministers of Edinburgh, Cardiff, and Belfast have each taken a position backing the right of their respective nations to determine their own political futures.

Swinney is expected to describe 2026 as a year that marked a shift in Scotland's path toward self-governance, and to assert that the process has now passed the point of reversal — while unionist politicians at Westminster have responded with expressions of alarm. The SNP has taken the initiative in setting the political agenda, the party has argued.

Under UK law, any referendum on Scottish independence requires authorisation from Westminster before it can proceed. A ruling handed down by the Supreme Court in 2022 — backed by five of its justices — established that Holyrood lacked the authority to organise a second referendum without first obtaining Westminster's approval.

In the period immediately following his election as Labour leader, Andy Burnham took a stance that moved the party's position on a second constitutional referendum. In the Commons, Burnham described Scotland's constitutional position as identical to Northern Ireland's, adding that a vote would be appropriate only when "clear consensus" existed; his press secretary afterwards clarified that the party's stance had not shifted and that an independence vote remained outside consideration, while at a press conference in Motherwell, Burnham left open the possibility of such a vote occurring during his time as prime minister. People familiar with the Prime Minister's inner circle conveyed to a broadcaster that a vote would not be held for as long as he remained in office.

Poll numbers heading into the conference show opinion on Swinney split. A YouGov poll put his net approval rating among Scots at minus 19, with 53 per cent holding an unfavourable view against 34 per cent who viewed him positively. A More in Common survey put his favourability figure at 30 per cent — trailing Burnham's 35 per cent rating, with Burnham also registering as the most favoured UK party leader among Scottish respondents.

A More in Common poll found that Swinney was more likely than any other party leader to be viewed by Scottish respondents as respectful of the people he represents, with words such as "trying," "honest," and "trustworthy" used to describe him — yet the same polling data placed support for Nicola Sturgeon's tenure as First Minister at 28 per cent, compared with 17 per cent for Swinney's. Some who cast ballots portray him as a principled figure, though one who has not shown the same ambition or intensity that characterised those who held the position before him.

According to polling by More in Common, the SNP holds a 36 per cent share of Holyrood constituency vote intentions — a figure broadly stable since May — while its Westminster support stands at 30 per cent, placing the party six points clear of Labour. About four in every five people who backed the SNP at the 2024 election have continued to support the party.

Participation at the polls that May reached 53 per cent, a figure sitting ten percentage points below the 2021 rate. Across the constituencies the SNP had previously held, its average vote count dropped from 18,231 to 12,729 — a reduction of over 5,500 ballots — during the same period that Reform UK picked up 5,357 votes and the Conservatives shed 4,490.

A poll conducted by More in Common found that nearly two-thirds of people in Scotland — 62 per cent — felt conditions there were deteriorating, while just over half, at 53 per cent, viewed the SNP as offering little departure from the status quo; on cost-of-living management, the government's net approval rating sat at minus 54. Polling carried out by YouGov found that more than half of respondents in Scotland viewed the SNP as out of touch with everyday concerns, untrustworthy, and driven chiefly by the party's own interests rather than those of the public.

In reply to Swinney's address, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay characterised the First Minister as someone who keeps repeating the same positions without variation. Critics have argued that his focus has remained fixed on the constitutional question of Scottish independence, while polling and public commentary point to voter priorities centred on household energy costs and the condition of public services.