John Swinney has said the drive for Scottish independence is now moving in a more favourable direction. Addressing party delegates gathered in Aberdeen, the First Minister drew on two separate developments to argue that the independence debate had advanced: remarks made by the Prime Minister in the House of Commons suggesting a further referendum remained possible if public demand warranted it, and a joint agreement reached among the leaders of pro-independence parties across Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
Hours after making those remarks, Burnham restated his position that Scottish independence falls outside the boundaries of his role, and separately did not alter his views in response to the Cardiff Agreement.
In a statement to the Press Association, the First Minister outlined that the SNP had prepared a substantial programme of policies to present and communicate to the public at its upcoming conference. When asked whether his argument that the debate had moved on — notwithstanding Downing Street's continued opposition — amounted to an admission that he had little to offer SNP members on the matter, the First Minister maintained that the case for independence had reached a new stage, with acceptance of the need to revisit the question now far broader than before, and that the party's performance at the May election had been a contributing factor in that shift.
Pressed on whether the Prime Minister's remarks to the House of Commons — in which he indicated Scotland could hold another independence vote if broad national consensus existed — had been walked back almost immediately, Swinney expressed the view that statements made before parliament carry little weight if they are liable to be retracted, while separately urging party members to draw confidence from the SNP's fifth consecutive electoral victory as evidence that the independence movement holds a leading position in Scottish political life.
The First Minister contended that polling data, taken as a whole, pointed toward support for Scottish independence, while also noting that Andy Burnham had told the House of Commons something that amounted, in different words, to his own stated view — that the structures of Westminster and Whitehall were not functioning as they should — leaving the Prime Minister's assurances as the only basis on which to proceed.
In an interview with a television news outlet, Ipsos Scotland managing director Emily Gray noted that opinion on independence remains split among the public, with polling data showing no shift in that position in the period leading up to the survey. A post-election survey found that slightly fewer than half of respondents favoured holding another Scottish independence referendum within the following five years.
Poll data from the May elections placed Scottish independence among the leading concerns shaping voter decisions, pointing to enduring public interest in the constitutional question. Polling data, as things stand, points to no clear majority among Scottish voters either for independence or for remaining within the union, with figures hovering at roughly even odds, at or near the boundary of statistical uncertainty.
Recent polling data leaves the outcome of a hypothetical referendum genuinely uncertain, with no clear indication of which side holds the advantage. How the picture might evolve, and where any boundary of change would eventually be drawn, remains an open question. At an earlier point, the SNP put forward 60% support for independence as the level that would constitute a meaningful threshold. Polling data at present points to no clear majority among Scottish voters in support of independence.
