At the SNP conference, First Minister John Swinney is expected to address delegates with the position that conditions for independence are converging favourably. Swinney is set to contend that unionist parties are facing heightened anxiety and that the independence cause has gathered pace — a picture that recently released polling does not clearly support, given that surveys place public sentiment on constitutional questions in roughly even balance.

Polling carried out by Survation on behalf of the SNP placed support for independence at 52 per cent. Polling by YouGov put the No camp at 53 per cent, while a separate More in Common survey recorded backing for remaining within the UK at 52 per cent.

Polling data points to no clear consensus among people in Scotland on where independence ranks as a political priority. A YouGov poll recorded just 17 per cent of respondents placing the matter among the nation's most pressing concerns. Data gathered by More in Common placed the issue twelfth among voter priorities, with only around one in ten respondents listing it among their top three concerns — a frequency roughly six times lower than that recorded for cost of living. Polling conducted by Survation on behalf of Scotland in Union placed the cost of living among the top three governmental priorities for 68 per cent of respondents, while just 11 per cent ranked another independence referendum in that same tier.

Addressing party delegates, Swinney planned to contend that conditions were converging favourably for the independence movement, and intended to tell the gathering that the election outcome — along with the trust voters in Scotland had placed in the party — had opened the door to two distinct courses of action. The aim, he indicated, is to raise living standards for people in the present. The party argued that Scottish independence represented the path toward the strongest attainable future for the country.

A party official contended that an electoral loss in that period would have set the independence cause back by roughly a generation. The party stated that pressure from the opposing side mounted throughout, yet the plan in question did not change. The organisation's stated direction remains anchored in the principles, convictions, and founding purpose it has long held.

The rival camp's tactics have grown noticeably more strained as the contest has progressed, according to the party's account. What had begun as relatively detached material shifted, by degrees, toward the personal. The party reported that momentum had shifted in its favour and that conditions appear to be shifting gradually into a more favourable alignment.

At Holyrood, the parties aligned with Westminster hold a notably reduced share of political ground compared with earlier periods. The First Ministers of Edinburgh, Cardiff, and Belfast have each taken the position that their respective nations hold a right to self-determination.

Swinney is expected to describe 2026 as a year that marked a turning point in Scotland's path toward becoming an independent state, and to assert that the process has passed the point of reversal — a position that, according to reports, has drawn a unified response of concern from unionist politicians at Westminster. The SNP has positioned itself at the forefront of the current political conversation on the constitutional question.

Under UK law, any referendum on Scottish independence can only proceed with the consent of the Westminster government. A ruling handed down by the Supreme Court in 2022, backed by five of its justices, established that Holyrood lacked the authority to organise a second referendum without first obtaining Westminster's approval.

In the period immediately following his election as Labour leader, Andy Burnham took a stance that moved the party's position toward backing a fresh public vote on the constitution. During a Commons address, Burnham described Scotland's constitutional position as identical to Northern Ireland's, adding that any vote would require a clear consensus to proceed. His press secretary subsequently clarified that the party's stance had not shifted and that an independence vote remained outside consideration. At a Motherwell press conference, Burnham chose not to set a definitive timeline ruling out such a vote for the entirety of his time in office. People with knowledge of the Prime Minister's thinking conveyed to a broadcast outlet that no such vote would take place under his continued tenure at Downing Street.

Surveys conducted ahead of the conference place Swinney's public standing at a near-even divide between those who view him favourably and those who do not. A YouGov poll put his net approval rating among Scots at minus 19, with 53 per cent holding an unfavourable view of him against 34 per cent who viewed him positively. A More in Common survey placed his favourability figure at 30 per cent — trailing Burnham, whose 35 per cent rating also puts him ahead of every other UK party leader when measured by Scottish respondents.

A More in Common survey found that Swinney was rated more highly than any other leader on the quality of respecting the Scottish public, with respondents applying words such as "trying," "honest," and "trustworthy" to him. The same polling body recorded that respondents favoured Nicola Sturgeon's tenure as First Minister over Swinney's by 28 per cent to 17 per cent. A portion of voters view him as a person of integrity, yet polling has not recorded the same level of drive and momentum attributed to his predecessors.

According to polling by More in Common, the SNP holds a 36 per cent share of Holyrood constituency votes — a figure broadly stable since May — while its Westminster standing sits at 30 per cent, putting the party six points clear of Labour. Around four in every five people who backed the SNP at the 2024 election have continued to support the party.

Participation in the May ballot came in at 53 per cent, a figure ten percentage points below the 2021 rate. Across the constituencies the SNP had previously held, its average vote count dropped from 18,231 to 12,729 — a reduction of over 5,500 ballots — with Reform UK picking up 5,357 votes over the same period and the Conservatives shedding 4,490.

A poll by More in Common found that 62 per cent of people in Scotland believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 53 per cent view the SNP as offering little departure from the status quo. The government's net approval rating on cost-of-living matters sits at minus 54. A YouGov poll indicated that a majority of people in Scotland hold the view that the SNP operates in its own interests, lacks trustworthiness, and has lost touch with ordinary voters.

In response to Swinney's address, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay characterised the First Minister as repeating the same arguments without offering anything new. Critics have argued that his focus has centred on constitutional questions around Scottish independence, while polling and advocacy groups point to household energy costs and the state of public services as the priorities voters themselves have raised.