Figures from the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll show the Opportunity Party has fallen outside the kingmaker position for a second consecutive month, while New Zealand First has recorded a notable rise, adding to the margin held by the current coalition government.
NZ First gained 3.6 percentage points in the Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll for October, placing the party at 12%. The ACT party's share of the vote stands at 9.2 per cent. National's share of support edged down half a point to 28.5%, leaving the two parties separated by just 0.3 percentage points, with Labour having climbed 2.3 points to reach 28.2%.
Poll figures placed National at 28.5 percent (down half a point), Labour at 28.2 percent (up 2.3 points), the Greens at 13.3 percent (down 0.6), NZ First at 12.0 percent (up 3.6), ACT at 9.2 percent (down 1.3), Te Pāti Māori at 1.4 percent (down 0.6), Opportunity at 4.8 percent (up 0.3), and a combined 2.7 percent for remaining parties (down 3.2).
Two other polls published earlier in the week placed the parties at different standings — one survey by Reid Research put Labour ahead on 30.8% against National's 25.9%, while a Verian poll recorded National at 29% with Labour just behind on 28%. Across the two surveys, Opportunity's vote share landed above the 5% entry threshold for parliament — registering at 5.5% in one and 7% in the other. According to those polling numbers, Opportunity could find itself holding balance-of-power leverage when votes are counted on November 7.
In the Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, Opportunity registered 4.8%, placing it just under the 5% threshold required for entry. Taking the poll's margin of error into account, there is a 42% probability that Opportunity's support actually clears the 5% threshold. Poll figures for Opportunity across three months showed 4.5% recorded in September, a reading of 6.1% during August, and 3.3% posted back in July, all drawn from the Taxpayers' Union-Curia survey.
Support for the Green Party registered at 13.3%, while Te Pāti Māori recorded a figure of 1.4%. The party named Opportunity held no place among the candidates featured in this month's survey.
On the right-leaning bloc's side of the ledger, National, NZ First, and ACT together hold a projected tally of 65 seats — a gain of one — while Labour, the Greens, Opportunity, and Te Pāti Māori collectively account for 55 projected seats, a figure that has slipped by one. Under the Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll methodology, which sets aside any overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori, the projected numbers would leave National, ACT, and NZ First with enough combined support to maintain their governing arrangement.
Against September's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, Luxon's figure held at 21.2% while Hipkins climbed 4.1 percentage points to reach 21%. NZ First's Winston Peters recorded a 3.2-point gain, lifting his polling to 13.9%, whereas the Greens' Chlöe Swarbrick posted a 2.1-point fall, bringing her figure down to 4.9%. Support for ACT Party leader David Seymour slipped to 6.0%, a drop of 1.8 percentage points.
When respondents were asked which party handled each issue better, National drew more support across a broader range of areas — including the economy, inflation, education, safety, public spending, the environment, and tax — while Labour held an advantage on health, poverty, and housing.
Fieldwork for the poll was carried out by Curia Market Research, acting on behalf of the Taxpayers' Union. Drawn from a randomly selected group of 1,000 adults across New Zealand, the survey data are then adjusted to reflect the demographic composition of the country's broader adult population. Fielded across landline, mobile, and online channels from Thursday 1 October through Monday 5 October, the poll carries a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with 2.5 per cent of respondents leaving the party vote question unanswered.
Between 24 September and 1 October, Reid Research gathered responses from 1,000 eligible voters through an online survey, a methodology carrying a margin of error that reaches ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Between 23 and 27 September, a Verian survey drew responses from 1,004 voters contacted through mobile and online panels, with the margin of sampling error running to roughly ±3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Rival parties have taken their appeals directly to voters as the contest for office moves into full swing. Two policy announcements emerged from New Zealand's minor parties that Friday morning — NZ First putting forward a proposal to end the retail sale and public use of fireworks, while ACT pushed for agriculture to hold its place as a taught subject within the Year 11 curriculum.
National's re-election platform allocated $300 million in concessional loans toward new water storage infrastructure, positioning both water and fertiliser supply as central priorities within its farming policy commitments. Two separate policy directions took shape as National outlined its approach to welfare — centring on jobseeker support and drug testing — while Labour put forward commitments around transparent airfare pricing, expanded passenger protections, and broader choice for travellers.
NZ First drew attention over its party list and over a session with Family First — a conservative Christian advocacy organisation — in which Peters, as party leader, fielded questions on conversion therapy legislation and late-term abortion policy. On one side, Labour put forward proposals addressing competition within banking and fuel markets; on the other, National unveiled a plan for small businesses alongside a commitment to fully fund both the Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and the Woodend Bypass in Canterbury.
A commitment to safeguarding the Hauraki Gulf formed part of the Greens' platform, alongside a pledge to fund and carry out the removal of level crossings across Auckland. A plan by ACT to publish its alternative budget was scheduled for the weekend.
