A Whakaata Māori-Curia poll shows incumbent Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris recording 15 percent support in the electorate, placing him behind Labour's Mananui Ramsden on 30 percent, Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch on 17 percent, and Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga on 16 percent. The four contenders are set to face each other in a broadcast debate on Tuesday evening at 7pm, hosted across Te Ao Māori News on Facebook and YouTube, Whakaata Māori, and MĀORI+, with Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman serving as moderators. The survey data were gathered on behalf of Whakaata Māori to support its Whakatau 2026 electoral coverage programme. Curia Market Research, which also carries out polling on behalf of the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union, ran the poll between 14 and 24 September. A total of 500 Māori voters aged 18 and above in Te Tai Tonga took part in the survey, with 420 contacted by telephone and the remaining 80 via an online panel. The poll carries a sampling error of ±4.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. Survey findings point to Te Tai Tonga potentially returning to Labour, provided the 7 November election outcome aligns closely with voter preferences captured during the polling period. The Māori electorate spanning Te Waipounamu, Rakiura, Wharekauri, and portions of Te Ika-a-Māui, including Te Whanganui-a-Tara, has been represented predominantly by Labour MPs from the Tirikatene family over a 72-year period, with New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori MPs holding the seat during shorter intervals. Tākuta Ferris, who unseated incumbent MP Rino Tirikatene at the 2023 election, is now contesting the race as an independent after an internal dispute within Te Pāti Māori resulted in his exit from the party. Ferris recorded a net approval rating of plus 18 percentage points, with 29 percent of respondents rating his performance favourably against 11 percent who viewed it unfavourably, even as his voting preference figures remained low. Among respondents aged 18 to 39, roughly 37 percent held a favourable view of Ferris, a figure that dropped to 15 percent among those aged 60 and above. Among respondents aged 60 and above, 24 percent held an unfavourable opinion of him, a proportion three times higher than the 8 percent recorded among those in younger age brackets. Support for Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga was roughly twice as high among women as among men (21 percent compared with 10 percent). Among respondents aged 18 to 39, backing for her reached 24 percent, a figure that outpaced the levels recorded in older demographic groups. Survey respondents were divided on the question, with 3 percent viewing party independence as very important for an electorate MP, 43 percent somewhat important, 14 percent not that important, and 3 percent not important at all. According to the survey, Labour held the top position in party vote preferences at 28 percent, with the Greens at 14 percent, Te Pāti Māori at 11 percent, New Zealand First and National each at 6 percent, Opportunity and Free Palestine both at 4 percent, and one in ten voters yet to make up their minds. Among voters aged 18 to 39, backing for Labour stood at 16 per cent, compared with 42 per cent for the 40–59 age bracket and 37 per cent for those aged 60 and above. Residents of Te Tai Tonga were surveyed about which issues they considered most pressing for advancing Māori wellbeing. Upholding Te Tiriti o Waitangi was the top priority for 30 percent of respondents, with reducing poverty and homelessness coming in at 24 percent, improving health and education at 20 percent, mental health and addiction services at 13 percent, and tackling Māori unemployment at 10 percent. Curia has operated as a polling organisation in New Zealand for a number of years. The organisation withdrew from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body during 2024.
