According to two people described as holding senior positions within Iran's government, the country's leadership is weighing altered tactics for interfering with shipping movements in the Strait of Hormuz, framed internally as a means of inflicting political damage on Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections. Iran has been working to sustain elevated oil prices ahead of the 3 November elections, in which voters across the United States will determine the composition of both chambers of Congress and choose governors in 36 states.
Following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February, Iranian authorities moved to assert greater influence over shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Passage through the waterway — which handled roughly one-fifth of worldwide oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before hostilities began — has been curtailed as a means of applying pressure on Washington. Vessel movements through the strait fell off noticeably after a series of armed actions and threats, a development that put upward pressure on oil prices, even as a portion of tanker traffic continued to pass through.
Neither official was willing to share details of the updated approach, though one noted that roughly ten days prior, Iran had begun employing altered methods when targeting vessels it viewed as breaching its maritime restrictions — a shift that had since contributed to a rise in incidents involving those ships. According to two officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the revised approach involves both a shift in the nature of attacks and an acceleration of their frequency, with one stated objective being to sway the outcome of the US election; one of those officials told a broadcaster that the underlying purpose is to block efforts by Washington and its partners to push global oil prices lower.
According to those officials, the strategic shift had been approved at the uppermost tier of Iran's governing structure and was aligned across the broader apparatus of state power.
An unnamed military official, speaking under a condition of anonymity, told reporters that the destruction of much of Iran's radar infrastructure had prompted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to shift toward deploying unarmed observers aboard small watercraft to track potential targets — among them, naval vessels belonging to the United States. According to a US military assessment not previously disclosed, personnel aboard a dhow were relaying targeting information to the IRGC during an incident that took place last week. Those aboard were directed to disembark before personnel came on deck, and the ship was subsequently sent to the bottom. No injuries were reported.
With its remaining fast-boat fleet kept out of action to avoid further losses, and following US airstrikes that left its naval forces substantially weakened, Iran found itself without the means to curb a growing volume of oil shipments moving through the strait. Spending tied to the conflict — running at roughly $3 billion each month — has drawn attention on the campaign trail ahead of November's midterm vote, where seats across both chambers of Congress are at stake.
Ahead of the vote, the president indicated no further action against Iran was planned, while options for what to do next remained under review. Separately, Washington has maintained a naval cordon around Iranian ports and broadened its sanctions regime, with the stated aim of generating enough economic strain to bring Tehran to the negotiating table over the ongoing hostilities.
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have placed global energy markets in an uncertain position, where vessel attack risks and elevated freight and insurance rates continue to weigh on any return to routine shipping activity. Independent tracking data points to attack tallies on vessels navigating the strait reaching their highest level since the conflict began, with those that kept moving through the passage absorbing the bulk of recorded incidents over recent days.
No fewer than five separate vessel incidents — among them drone strikes on tankers and other commercial craft — were logged in the waters near the Strait of Hormuz over a 48-hour window, drawn from data compiled by maritime security analysts and notifications submitted to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations authority. Figures compiled by the International Maritime Organisation, the UN's shipping body, showed the frequency of hits over those days mirrored the pace recorded between 3 and 5 October — a pattern that one maritime security source described as a deliberate lift in the tempo of strikes.
Those officials indicated that the revised proposal would push maritime operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz, extending coverage into the Gulf of Oman and farther-reaching expanses of open sea. Data drawn from incident logs held by UKMTO and regional maritime security firms, reviewed by specialists in the field, point toward that pattern already taking hold. Footage captured vessels being targeted across a stretch of waterway extending past the Strait of Hormuz — including patches of ocean lying off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — with the activity documented over the past several days, attributed to Iranian forces.
A second Iranian official stated that Tehran had no intention of permitting a drop in oil prices ahead of the November vote, with the official indicating that any time the opposing side appeared to be nearing a point where prices might fall, steps would be taken to push that outcome out of reach. A second official described the standoff as a strategic contest, adding that the vessels in question would face exposure to risk at any location, including waters beyond the Strait of Hormuz; neither the Pentagon nor Iran's Foreign Ministry had offered a response to requests for comment by the time of publication.
Two officials described Tehran as advancing toward a position where any vessel that disregards its restrictions would find passage through the strait effectively blocked, with one of them telling reporters that a full closure of the waterway was expected shortly. The Joint Maritime Information Centre, operating under US Navy leadership, placed the threat level facing commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz at its second-highest classification — described as "severe" — in a Sunday assessment, adding that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps activity in the area had continued to encompass drone overflights, targeted monitoring of merchant traffic, and intermittent radio contact attempts.
