US officials have indicated that hostilities between the two nations are drawing to a close. In September, Trump expressed the view that the conflict would conclude promptly following the November election, adding that Iran lacked the capacity to sustain its position. In August, Ahmad Vahidi, who held a senior position within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that Tehran had brought what he described as the most comprehensively armed military force in history to defeat.
Independent analysts broadly expect the fighting to persist, with a negotiated settlement seen as a more probable conclusion than outright military victory for either side. Neither side in the conflict appears positioned to fully attain its objectives, yet each calculates that ongoing hostilities remain worthwhile given the gains being made.
The United States holds relatively few practical tools to pressure Iran into abandoning its government structure, scaling back its ballistic missile programme, suspending nuclear development, or cutting connections with allied factions throughout the region. The United States has the capacity to continue weakening Iran's armed forces and tightening restrictions on its economy. While Iran lacks the capacity to expel the United States from the region, it retains the ability to strike at American bases, target allied nations, and obstruct global trade routes.
Each party to the conflict appears to have the capacity to sustain prolonged fighting and views continued engagement as unavoidable. Periodic discussions take place between the two sides, yet confidence in one another remains absent.
Tehran's position, according to analysts, is that surrendering any of its strategic assets — including control of the Strait of Hormuz, its ballistic capabilities, or its atomic programme — would leave it open to future external pressure. The United States has expressed concern that extensive sanctions relief could give Iran both the financial means and the breathing room to rebuild its nuclear and military programmes. Israeli officials have expressed the view that a measured approach now could allow Iranian capabilities to expand over time.
On 28 February, the United States and Israel conducted joint strikes against Iran, with Washington expecting a rapid resolution. Reporting indicated that, by June 2025, a substantial portion of Iran's nuclear infrastructure had been eliminated or dismantled, along with numerous missile launch sites. According to reports, a number of senior Iranian scientists and dozens of military commanders had been killed, while Hezbollah's forces in Lebanon had suffered substantial losses.
Bashar al-Assad's grip on power in Syria had collapsed, while widespread demonstrations had destabilised the Iranian government. During the opening phase of the conflict, Ali Khamenei — Iran's supreme leader — along with numerous senior military figures were reported killed by Israeli and American forces.
Predictions that Iran would disintegrate proved to have no basis in reality, according to subsequent reporting. The government swiftly filled vacant positions and launched a counter-offensive, destroying aircraft, missile systems, and radar installations at multiple bases throughout the Persian Gulf region. The waterway came under its authority, with maritime trade flows through the strait subject to restriction. Strikes attributed to Iranian military forces targeted energy and civilian infrastructure throughout the Gulf region.
Sanctions and a naval blockade along Iran's southern coastline have collectively narrowed the country's ability to participate in international trade. Land corridors and the Caspian Sea continue to provide viable channels for trade, making a full economic blockade of Iran difficult to achieve. Both nations have maintained a steady flow of supplies and defence intelligence to Tehran.
Facing fiscal constraints, authorities opted to trim public subsidies rather than scale back expenditure on defence and internal security forces. Iranians across the country have borne the greatest share of the economic strain stemming from a depreciating currency and persistently elevated prices.
The eight-year armed conflict between Iran and Iraq, spanning 1980 to 1988, resulted in hundreds of thousands of fatalities and an estimated several hundred billion dollars in economic losses. Tehran maintained its military campaign for an additional six years after reclaiming its territory from Iraqi occupation. Hostilities drew to a close as advances on the battlefield, deepening outside involvement in the Gulf, and an altered distribution of regional power rendered further fighting unsustainable.
Tehran has coordinated with allied groups across the region, among them armed factions in Iraq and Houthi forces in Yemen, to sustain pressure on opposing parties. A ballistic missile strike on a Jordanian base housing American troops was carried out by Iran in July, without any prior military action from the United States. Forces have additionally asserted influence over the Strait of Hormuz, deploying unmanned aerial vehicles and ballistic weaponry against vessels in the waterway.
A memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities between Iran and the United States was reached that June. The agreement was structured to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and open talks on Tehran's nuclear activities, with sanctions relief and a halt to military operations against Iran and its allies offered in return.
Negotiations broke down after both parties failed to reach common ground on core provisions. The US held that vessels had unrestricted passage rights through the strait, while Iran maintained it held authority over transit terms and could levy charges. Vessels navigating the waterway off Oman's coast came under fire from Iran. Tehran charged that the United States had neither released frozen assets nor taken steps to prevent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Both sides accused the other of acting in bad faith, and tensions between them flared up again.
Analysts have observed shifts in Iran's domestic political balance of power attributed to the ongoing conflict. With Khamenei's death, the nation lost the individual who had long functioned as its primary unifying force. Armed forces and security apparatus personnel are expanding their influence over non-military governmental and religious bodies. Domains such as telecommunications, foreign investment, higher education, the press, and economic policy are progressively being reclassified as national security concerns and placed under the authority of intelligence and defence bodies.
Gulf states are reviewing their defence partnerships, with some concluding that close alignment with Washington has left them more exposed to potential threats. A balanced approach — deepening diplomatic and economic engagement with Iran to curb hostilities, while preserving existing security and trade ties with Washington — is seen by analysts as the most probable course. Countries in the region are additionally anticipated to channel funds into ground-based air defence networks, reinforce vital infrastructure against attack, and expand their stockpiles of strategic reserves.
Observers have assessed that a substantial Iranian attack resulting in notable American casualties, or one that disrupts key Gulf energy infrastructure, could lead the United States to consider deploying ground troops or striking Iran's power grid. Iran's leadership may also be miscalculating how much economic strain its population can endure before accumulating supply shortages give rise to broader public unrest and fractures within the ruling establishment, analysts have suggested.
As matters stand, both parties have fallen short of their declared goals, and neither appears willing to accept terms that would demand genuine compromise. More than $40 billion in funding has been allocated to date, with stated objectives yet to be met. The government has maintained its hold on power even as economic hardship continues to weigh heavily on ordinary people.
