Polling data ahead of Victoria's 28 November state election shows the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal-National Coalition each losing ground, while smaller and newer political forces attract a growing share of voter support. Data drawn from five Victorian state surveys carried out between September and October put Labor's primary vote share at around 24.4 percent, with the combined Liberals and Nationals tally sitting roughly five points higher at 29.2 percent. The party known as One Nation drew a vote share of 22.8 percent.
Pooled support for the two parties that have long shared electoral dominance now sits at roughly 53.6 percent of the primary vote, a figure running about 18 percentage points short of what the pair recorded together at the 2022 state election.
Three pressures have shaped the electoral contest throughout: household finances stretched by rising prices, strain on public services, and a gap between wealthier and poorer citizens that has continued to grow. Forecasts place Victoria's net debt at $175.6 billion by the end of June 2027, with that figure drawing close to $200 billion before 2030, while the annual cost of servicing that debt is expected to climb to $11.8 billion in interest alone. Pressure from industry groups and financial analysts for faster cuts to public expenditure has been matched by pledges of fiscal restraint from both of the country's leading parties.
Between January and August, the volume of assistance requests logged by Mortgage Stress Victoria had grown to twice the earlier figure. Around 76,000 people receive meals through Foodbank Victoria's distribution network each day. An Anglicare survey of Victorian rental listings found that households relying on income support could access fewer than one in every hundred advertised properties at an affordable price point.
Of the 44 years stretching back from the present, Victoria's state government has been held by Labor for 33 of them — a run that includes an unbroken stretch of 13 years up to the current term. Polling conducted most recently put the party's backing at around 24 percent, down from the 37 percent it recorded when voters went to the polls in 2022.
Plans to demolish and rebuild all 44 of Melbourne's public-housing towers are moving forward under the state government, with upwards of 10,000 residents set to be displaced by the works. Across Victorian emergency departments in the past year, upwards of 13,000 patients waited longer than 24 hours to be seen, a period during which the state government also held back $2.4 billion in public-school funding that had previously been committed.
Commitments to reduce spending came with Ben Carroll's assumption of the premiership from Jacinta Allan in July. Budget figures put forward by Labor point to savings exceeding $4 billion, a total that incorporates the removal of around 1,000 positions from the public sector over the previous year. Speaking at the campaign launch, Carroll outlined plans to fund reductions in land-tax obligations for higher-income property holders through cuts to government expenditure.
Jess Wilson has built her Victorian Liberal election pitch around a freeze on public-sector hiring, a measure her party projects would trim government spending by $22 billion over ten years.
Polling numbers for One Nation have trended upward, with the party directing its campaign message toward affordability pressures on households and what it describes as a decline in public services, healthcare among them. Pauline Hanson, who leads One Nation at the federal level, has put forward a policy agenda calling for cuts to welfare expenditure alongside adjustments to workplace entitlements and pay conditions. Among the donors who have directed funds toward the party, Gina Rinehart — whose wealth derives from the mining industry — stands as a notable contributor.
Outlined in Labor's May budget at the federal level, a package of savings and reprioritisations totalling $63.8 billion drew roughly $38 billion from adjustments made to the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
Three additional parties — the Greens, the Victorian Socialists, and the Socialist Equality Party — have entered candidates in the race. Among the priorities the SEP has outlined for its campaign are the construction of a socialist and internationalist movement rooted in working people, along with plans to put questions of worldwide military expenditure — and the connection between that spending and austerity policies — at the centre of its platform.
A prolonged pay-and-conditions dispute between Victorian teachers and the state government played out through extended industrial action across the year, with members twice rejecting proposed agreements put forward by the Australian Education Union. Healthcare personnel, including physicians, joined the wave of workforce stoppages through their own collective labour action.
