Accounts of a possible deployment of the heaviest conventional munitions in the US arsenal against Iran have put fresh focus on the trajectory of the two nations' ongoing dispute. Contingency planning at the White House and Pentagon has produced options for deploying the Massive Ordnance Air Blast — a large-yield conventional weapon commonly referred to as the MOAB — though the development of such options carries no indication that any strike has been authorised.
Diplomatic avenues and renewed armed action both remain under active consideration, with energy markets and regional stability among the factors informing that deliberation. The administration's position, relayed through a White House spokesperson, holds that all available options remain open when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, according to Trump. Addressing the United Nations General Assembly, the president acknowledged that a choice between pursuing a negotiated agreement with Iran and authorising military force against the country remained before him.
At roughly 30,000 pounds, the MOAB ranks as the heaviest conventional munition held within the US military's stockpile. Weighing in at over 30,000 pounds and carrying a unit cost of $170,000, the weapon ranks as the largest conventional munition currently maintained within the US military inventory. In 2017, a subterranean tunnel network held by the Islamic State in Afghanistan became the target when the munition saw its first combat deployment by US forces.
Where any MOAB strike might land, when it could happen, and whether it would happen at all remained open questions. Planners within the Pentagon, a department official noted, hold readiness across a broad spectrum of operational contingencies in order to carry out directives handed down from presidential and defence leadership.
Combat operations have drawn attention to questions about how effectively existing missile defence capabilities hold up under real-world pressure. According to figures from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States held approximately 2,300 Patriot missiles before hostilities began, and battlefield use drew that reserve down by an estimated 1,050 to 1,430 rounds — a depletion that, by the time a ceasefire took hold, had absorbed anywhere from roughly 46 to 61 percent of the total pre-conflict supply. According to a CSIS assessment, roughly 190 to 290 of the approximately 355 THAAD interceptors on hand at the conflict's outset were expended over the course of the fighting.
According to CSIS projections, fulfilling a Patriot PAC-3 interceptor order takes roughly three and a half years from contract to delivery, while a freshly signed THAAD interceptor agreement carries a wait of approximately four years and five months. Plans put forward by Lockheed Martin call for THAAD interceptor output to grow from 96 units per year to 400, though building out that manufacturing capability will require a considerable lead time.
Passage through the Strait of Hormuz carries outsized weight for global energy markets, where even a brief interruption to vessel traffic can push oil prices higher and tighten supplies worldwide. Shipping corridors face ongoing vulnerability to interruption, and the knock-on effects for energy markets have made price movements harder to anticipate and wider in their reach.
Mark Cancian, a defence adviser at CSIS, noted that every bit of available surge capacity had been drawn down on the basis that maintaining it was viewed as unnecessary.
