Reporting from Tel Aviv, a journalist noted that Trump — who told an audience in May that he would run for prime minister if he had the chance, citing what he put at 99 percent approval — appears to hold a level of popular support in Israel that no other nation has offered him. Available polling data has never produced a number matching that figure. The remark landed, in part, because it was not entirely without basis.

With the vote set for 27 October, polling puts Trump ahead of all other politicians in the race. His name does not appear among the candidates listed on the ballot.

Over the past decade, Netanyahu has cultivated close ties to Trump's political brand — a relationship whose reliability now appears open to question. On October 13, 2025, a Gaza agreement attributed to Trump's negotiating team brought the final 20 living hostages back to their families, and Trump delivered an address to the Knesset on the same date. Footage of the reunions played on screen as his speech aired across television broadcasts in Israel.

Netanyahu described Trump as the most supportive foreign leader Israel had ever had, and set aside the usual citizenship requirement to put forward Trump's name for the Israel Prize — an honour that has historically gone only to Israeli nationals. A connection between the two images was noted by a notable portion of the audience.

By the time 2026 arrived, three developments had taken shape in sequence: a coordinated military operation targeting Iran got underway in February, fighting between the parties paused under a ceasefire arrangement reached in April, and Trump put forward a Hamas disarmament agreement in July.

A Pew survey conducted around mid-2025 put the share of Israelis expressing confidence in him at 69 percent. A poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute in February 2026 placed 73 percent of respondents in the camp of those who viewed him as performing above the level of a typical U.S. president. Those numbers hold up under scrutiny, though a degree of uncertainty about their precision has not been fully resolved.

A study out of Tel Aviv University found that Jewish Israelis — particularly those on the political right — showed greater willingness to engage in negotiations with Palestinians once they learned that Trump was the driving force behind the initiative.

During the 2019 election period, Likud put up large-format billboards along the Ayalon highway featuring a handshake image of Netanyahu and Trump beneath the phrase "In another league," a post that Trump subsequently shared on his own platform. No endorsement from Trump has been put forward on this occasion.

That month, he indicated a conditional preference for Netanyahu, with his final position tied to whoever the opposing candidate turned out to be. Eisenkot's entry into the contest drew a comment from Trump, who noted that nothing unfavourable about the candidate had reached him. Asked directly about the endorsement by a TIME reporter, he gave no answer on each of the three occasions the topic came up. On one occasion, as he made his way toward Marine One, he told reporters only that an endorsement was a possibility, without putting a name to it.

That single Truth Social post, placed in September, amounted to a shared link pointing to a Newsmax report covering one poll that put Netanyahu's bloc out front. Outlets in the Israeli media space have noted that representatives connected to the Eisenkot and Bennett political camps separately reached out to contacts within Trump's orbit, conveying a preference that those contacts take no side in the matter.

Averaged across five surveys conducted during the previous month, Eisenkot's Yashar party registered a projected 22.2 seats against 21.2 for Likud. On average, the parties aligned with Netanyahu tallied 54.4, while those grouped under the Zionist opposition registered 51. Both figures fall short of the 61-seat threshold required to form a government.

During that summer period, Trump applied pressure on Israel to scale back its military activity in Lebanon and withdraw from portions of Syrian territory, even as American officials were engaged in nuclear talks with Iran. During one exchange, he stated that his remarks about Netanyahu on the call had been strongly unfavourable.

Axios, citing people familiar with his remarks, reported that he has privately described Netanyahu as his own worst enemy. A poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute showed the proportion of Israelis who viewed Trump as prioritising their country's security dropped from 44 percent in May to 28 percent in June. Confidence in his commitment to Israel's security, measured among Jewish survey participants, fell by 38 percentage points over the three months from March through June.

Roughly one in three respondents viewed the country's strategic standing as having strengthened in the wake of the conflict with Iran. His approval ratings among voters have held steady throughout the period in question. Disagreement with a leader's policy choices does not necessarily diminish the personal respect that many people extend to him.

A case from within Netanyahu's own party illustrated the dynamic: a businessman placed on the Likud electoral list drew attention after past remarks surfaced in which he had characterised Trump as "morally corrupt," prompting him to issue a public apology within hours and describe Trump as the most supportive White House occupant Israel had known.

The relationship Netanyahu has cultivated with Trump forms the foundation of what he is presenting to the electorate. His campaign messaging points to a working partnership with Trump as the preferred path forward, rather than one defined by friction or opposition. Disagreement runs through the profession over whose approach to handling the relationship would prove most effective.

Reports indicate that Netanyahu's acceptance of a Gaza framework came with backing from Trump — an arrangement that Israeli coalition dynamics alone were unlikely to have produced. A letter addressed to President Herzog also sought a pardon for Netanyahu in his ongoing criminal case — a move that would draw considerable scrutiny were it to originate from virtually any other head of state.

A vote to determine the next prime minister is scheduled among Israelis for October 27. Questions about who in the administration would place the first call are also drawing attention.