Polling data gathered weeks before the US midterm elections point to a dip in Donald Trump's approval numbers, a trend that analysts say could weigh on Republican candidates at the ballot box. The data, gathered through a collaboration between the Financial Times and Focaldata, pointed to widespread dissatisfaction among respondents over how Trump handled the US economy.
Survey data placed presidential approval on economic matters — covering both job creation and overall financial conditions — at around 25 percent, with the share expressing satisfaction over how inflation has been managed falling to nearly 20 percent. Polling data put the share of respondents who viewed the national economy as travelling in the wrong direction at above two-thirds of those surveyed.
The poll findings land at a moment when congressional races have drawn the president's focus, and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for firmer steps to address the cost-of-living concerns that loom large for many voters. Payroll figures for September came in at 29,000 new positions, a total that trailed forecasts put forward by economists and prompted questions about the labour market's underlying strength.
Trump's approval rating stood at 34 percent, while a survey of registered voters found that 45 percent believed he was working against Republican candidates' prospects in the November elections.
The Cook Political Report's read on the electoral terrain for Republicans found a degree of support in what the data showed. Updated ratings from the outlet — which carries no party affiliation — moved 18 House races in a direction favouring Democratic candidates, placing the party's projected autumn pickup somewhere between nine and 19 seats. Polling data placed Democratic candidates more than five percentage points ahead of their Republican counterparts among registered voters surveyed.
Survey data on two fronts — artificial intelligence policy and the approach to Iran — revealed that public opinion ran counter to the direction Trump had set. Roughly two in three respondents expressed support for legally binding federal oversight of AI companies, along with a slower pace of technological development — views that place them at odds with the administration's stated preference for rapid AI advancement.
Polling data covering registered voters puts approval of his Iran policy at below one-quarter, a figure that has retreated seven percentage points from where it stood in May. Roughly six in ten registered voters favoured moving toward a negotiated settlement without delay, rather than holding out for terms more advantageous to one side. Over the following weeks, a proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz did not receive approval from Trump, who kept up a series of public statements as the conflict stretched into its eighth month.
Party loyalty among Republican voters has held relatively steady even as the president's approval numbers have dipped, and the midterm picture may hinge on whether those who harbour doubts about him — together with independent voters — choose to separate their personal views of his leadership from the congressional candidates they back. Among those who cast their ballots for Trump in 2024, the share expressing approval of his time in office has fallen to below 70 percent — down from roughly 80 percent recorded when one television outlet launched its tracking poll earlier in May. That figure — representing four in every five respondents — has held steady throughout the period, with those voters indicating they plan to back the Republican nominee in their local race when ballots are cast in November.
