According to projections by Social Security trustees, the combined retirement and survivor fund faces reserve depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032, at which point ongoing payroll contributions would be sufficient to pay out roughly 78 cents of every dollar in scheduled benefits. That forecast covers the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, known by its OASI designation.

According to the trustees' projections, a shortfall of roughly 22% would open between anticipated payouts and available revenue — stopping well short of a prediction that payments would cease altogether.

A 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 was put forward by the Social Security Administration in a notice released on October 14. Arriving at the figure involves setting the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers from the third quarter of 2026 against the equivalent reading from the third quarter of 2025.

According to SSA projections, the typical retired worker's monthly payment would climb by roughly $75 — moving from $2,095 up to $2,170 — when the adjustment takes effect at the start of 2027. Roughly 72 million people drawing Social Security payments, along with around 7.3 million Supplemental Security Income recipients, would be touched by the adjustment, the agency indicated.

On Oct. 17, a broadcast news outlet carried remarks from Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who tied the uptick to a quicker depletion of reserves, expressing the view that the trust fund would be drawn down at a faster rate as a result. No estimate was provided by the trustees regarding how the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment would shift the fund's projected depletion timeline.

During a Senate floor address that July, Cassidy put forward a figure of 28.5% as the projected reduction in benefits. According to projections put forward by the trustees, the OASI fund would face a gap of roughly 22 percent.

Under a separate hypothetical modelling of OASI and DI trust funds combined, reserves would run out in the third quarter of 2034, at which point incoming revenue would be enough to pay roughly 83 cents of every dollar in scheduled benefits — leaving a shortfall of about 17 cents on the dollar. According to the trustees, merging the funds would require legislative action.

Three factors drove the board's dimmer long-range projections: downward revisions to birth-rate and net-migration forecasts, along with pending legislation anticipated to trim the income-tax revenue flowing from Social Security benefits.

A separate plan put forward by Cassidy would direct $1.5 trillion across a five-year period into an investment fund kept apart from the Social Security trust funds, with the intention of adding to revenue generated through payroll taxes. The PROMISE Act, introduced alongside Sen. Dick Durbin, was framed by Cassidy as a mechanism for giving Congress a defined framework through which available options could be systematically evaluated.

The agency has indicated that its next cost-of-living adjustment figure will be released sometime in October 2027.