Goldman Sachs has indicated that while a short-term freeze on diesel exports from the United States would offer some relief to consumers, an extended restriction on such shipments could place upward pressure on domestic gasoline prices. On Sunday, the president indicated that the administration is giving active consideration to a potential ban on diesel exports.
Proposals to limit the export of domestically refined diesel have gained traction over the past several weeks, driven largely by Republican legislators who view such restrictions as a potential tool for bringing down fuel prices. According to AAA figures, diesel prices reached a peak of $6.53 per gallon on September 22, edging down marginally to $6.45 per gallon by Monday.
Those advocating for a prohibition on exports point out that domestic refining capacity for diesel exceeds national consumption, leaving the country with a net outflow of roughly 1.5 million barrels daily, per S&P Global Energy data. Restricting those exports, under this line of reasoning, would increase the domestic supply of diesel, putting downward pressure on prices for farmers, freight carriers, and the many other industries dependent on the fuel.
According to projections from Goldman Sachs, restricting diesel exports could lower fuel prices by roughly 25 cents per gallon for as long as refiners retain capacity to store surplus production. According to the investment bank, once diesel storage reached full capacity, each additional week the ban remained in effect could push gasoline prices up by 30 cents per gallon. Goldman Sachs analysts noted in the report that a prolonged diesel export ban would likely place upward pressure on gasoline prices, given that diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are largely produced together, meaning reduced diesel output tends to constrain gasoline production and lift prices accordingly. The White House had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication.
Industry analysts have noted that while an export ban might bring an initial decline in diesel prices, fuel producers would likely respond by scaling back their refining operations. Because gasoline and diesel are produced together in the refining process, any output reduction would tighten fuel availability and push pump prices higher for American motorists.
American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a trade association representing energy producers, stated on Friday that preventing refiners from sending surplus diesel overseas would lead them to reduce overall fuel output, including gasoline, placing upward pressure on retail prices and deepening the country's dependence on imported supplies. Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, projected that consumers could face notably higher pump prices under a full diesel export prohibition, with analyst Alan Gelder noting in a statement that such a policy would likely shift cost burdens from diesel to gasoline, meaning a measure intended to lower diesel prices at the pump could end up raising gasoline prices instead.
JPMorgan analysts added that if an export restriction extended beyond 30 days, the financial viability of refining both diesel and gasoline would come under strain, given that refiners cannot indefinitely sustain excess production. A September 24 JPMorgan report found that, given the structural link between diesel and gasoline in the refining process, any reduction in diesel output would require lower crude throughput overall, gradually unwinding the price relief that had initially taken hold — a trajectory that runs counter to the objectives of policymakers.
