Crude benchmarks climbed more than four dollars per barrel by Thursday's close, driven by reports of additional US military deployments to the Middle East and a halt on oil product exports from China — two developments that analysts say raised the prospect of tighter fuel availability worldwide.

Brent crude's lead December futures contract added $4.28 per barrel at the close, pushing the price to $102.31 and representing a gain of roughly 4.37 percent on the day. West Texas Intermediate crude contracts for US delivery closed the session at $92.87 per barrel, reflecting a gain of $2.45, or roughly 2.71 percent on the day.

One broadcast outlet reported that a third aircraft carrier along with as many as 10,000 additional troops were being positioned toward the Middle East, as President Donald Trump was said to be weighing a return to military action against Iran following the midterm elections. Speaking with reporters at the White House ahead of a trip, Trump said a path forward on Iran had yet to be settled, adding that a decision rested with him. He stated that the two possible outcomes were reaching an agreement he considered equitable, or the other party ceasing to operate.

On that particular trading session, two converging pressures — statements from officials and a fuel export halt imposed by Beijing — drove market conditions into a period of pronounced volatility. Crude prices dipped about one percent in early trading before recovering after four sources with knowledge of the situation told a broadcast outlet that Chinese refiners had halted outbound shipments of petroleum products to destinations beyond Hong Kong and Macau on an open-ended basis. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted in response that the export halt points to concerns over domestic product availability, while leaving open whether the restrictions would be enough to lift crude intake following recent drawdowns in Chinese crude and fuel inventories.

Crude oil shipments have continued reaching customers without interruption, while refining capacity in both Gulf and Russian operations has taken hits that left stocks of diesel and other processed fuels running below normal levels. Diesel stockpiles worldwide were already running lean when a ban on exports from Russia — one of the fuel's leading suppliers — took hold through October.

Those working within the sector indicated that supply constraints were not expected to ease until the following year. Putin indicated that diesel exports from Russia would remain withheld from global markets pending the removal of sanctions, while an analyst noted that any disruption to Chinese fuel export volumes would fall short of the supply gap left by reduced refined product flows from Russia and the Middle East.

Hamad Hussain, a senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, noted that the development adds further pressure to global fuel markets at a time when available supply is already tight. Two EU diplomats informed a broadcaster on Thursday that the bloc's energy taskforce has a Friday session scheduled to weigh whether diesel reserves should be drawn down to ease supply strain.

Anonymously sourced accounts relayed to a television network described a message the administration reportedly delivered to counterparts in Germany and France: draw down national diesel stockpiles or face potential restrictions on fuel shipments from the United States.

Negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict have seen little forward movement lately, even as hostilities on the ground persist. Three Liberian-flagged tankers sustained hits from projectiles of undetermined origin while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to a Wednesday bulletin from shipping intelligence provider Marisks.

Unnamed sources indicate that Tehran is drawing up contingency plans for a more extensive military reply should large-scale attacks from Washington resume, even as Iranian officials quietly acknowledge that the parallel diplomatic track stands little chance of bearing fruit.

Ongoing turbulence across global oil and fuel markets pushed the average Brent crude forecast for 2026 up to $89.05 per barrel among analysts, who at the same time pointed to tentative signs that export flows out of the Middle East were beginning to recover. Oil tanker loading operations at Yanbu got under way again on Tuesday, following the restoration of flow through the East-West Pipeline.

According to a Tuesday note from Goldman Sachs, total Gulf oil shipments — a figure that folds in vessels running without active location transponders, referred to as "dark exports" — reached 23.3 million barrels per day across the most recent seven-day period, matching the bank's calculated 2025 running average after a doubling of outflows through September.