Crude prices moved higher on Monday, with traders pointing to a combination of regional instability, fresh Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia, and vessel incidents near the Strait of Hormuz as factors weighing on the outlook for uninterrupted oil flows.
At 2304 GMT, Brent crude futures were changing hands at $105.48 a barrel, having added 76 cents on the session — a move of 0.73%. West Texas Intermediate crude added 59 cents by the close, bringing its per-barrel price to $92.44 — a 0.64% gain that unfolded as traders monitored shifting conditions across global energy markets.
Protests gathered momentum after drone and missile fire targeted the international airport serving Riyadh, with Yemen's Houthi movement asserting responsibility for the strikes. A toll of 13 dead and more than 300 wounded followed one attack, with a second incident on Sunday adding to the count of those killed and hurt.
Trump indicated that the White House was weighing whether to join Saudi Arabia in military action against the Houthis. A further intensification of the regional conflict took hold, tracing its origins to military operations launched jointly by the United States and Israel against Iran in February.
On Sunday, a separate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was declared, coming two days after a deal on Russian diesel supplies had been announced on Friday.
Two tankers came under attack over the weekend in waters near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a renewed focus on the safety of shipping through that passage. Two vessels reported damage in separate incidents near Oman — one hit by a drone at the Sohar anchorage, the other struck by a projectile of unknown origin while transiting the strait, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.
Questions about whether the increase in incidents could weigh on the partial rebound that Middle Eastern crude exports recorded in September have begun circulating among analysts and traders.
Brent crude's December delivery price target at Goldman Sachs moved up to $90 a barrel, a $5 revision driven by the bank's assessment that geopolitical pressures in the market show little sign of easing. A risk premium tied to geopolitical tensions was placed above $20 per barrel in calculations put forward by a team under Daan Struyven's direction.
Projections from the institution place WTI crude at a mean of $81 per barrel through December 2026, with that figure retreating to $73 across 2027, a spread driven in part by the gap between WTI and Brent that higher transatlantic freight costs have pushed wider.
Shell, Chevron, and BP each moved to bring offshore operations back online and return workers to their Gulf of Mexico platforms in the wake of Hurricane Isaias's Saturday landfall. Tensions tied to geopolitical unrest and weather-driven disruptions in key producing regions leave oil markets exposed to additional supply interruptions and price swings.
