Certain Republican figures, who had anticipated retaining the Senate heading into the midterm elections, are now voicing unease about a state that has voted for Donald Trump in three straight presidential contests and has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly two decades. Certain party insiders have quietly suggested that the North Carolina Senate race could become vulnerable, depending on whether Trump's approval ratings and consumer prices improve over the coming weeks. Republican strategists with close ties to this year's Senate races indicate the party intends to keep North Carolina in play. Late last week, a Republican super PAC pulled $6.5 million in reserved advertising time from the race, prompting some state-level analysts to wonder whether other national GOP groups might follow suit. That point had not yet come — a Republican strategist with experience in Senate races described Whatley's position as tenable, adding that no outcome could be determined before voters went to the polls, though the assessment stopped well short of confidence in the party's standing in the contested southern state, where at least two House districts were also shifting toward Democrats despite boundary changes drawn the previous fall. Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist in the state who guided Sen. Thom Tillis through two winning campaigns, noted that the candidate had yet to close a voter enthusiasm gap, build support among unaffiliated voters at a time when the president's approval with that group had dropped, or draw a clear distinction between himself and Trump. Whatley, a former state party chair, obtained Trump's endorsement to lead the national party in 2024, in part because of his backing for Trump's claims that the outcome of the 2020 election had been the result of fraud. Three people familiar with his thinking told reporters he planned to remain aligned with the president rather than distance himself, even as fellow candidates in closely contested races were taking the opposite approach — a position that a Republican communications strategist with backgrounds spanning congressional work, the George W. Bush administration, and the RNC attributed to the president's low approval ratings, arguing that stronger numbers would likely have drawn more voters into the contest. Republican strategists familiar with the contest have outlined a scenario in which Whatley narrows Cooper's lead among voters while banking on an upturn in Trump's poll figures. Cooper — a two-term governor, four-term attorney general, and longtime state legislator — carries a notably broader public profile, though one veteran Republican strategist raised doubts about whether Whatley had sufficient time to narrow the name-recognition gap, adding that among voters who had formed views on both candidates, the race looked broadly even. Whatley's spokesperson DJ Griffin countered that Cooper's polling lead would narrow as the race progressed, citing past North Carolina Senate contests as evidence that Republican voters typically mobilise later in the campaign and deliver strong turnout for GOP nominees on election day — though Cooper's four decades of statewide name recognition remain a factor in the race. North Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 2008, the year Barack Obama also carried the state in his first presidential campaign. Prior to Barack Obama's victory there, North Carolina had last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate when Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. The party has encountered comparatively less external pressure to pursue substantial budget cuts than it did during earlier electoral periods. A Republican strategist cast doubt on whether a win in North Carolina was within reach. Whatley maintained that the candidate retained a workable path to victory and that voter interest remained strong, noting his confidence — despite the withdrawal of $6.5 million in previously booked advertising — that the campaign would obtain sufficient resources to reach its target audience; a super PAC aligned with Trump has booked $6.7 million in promotional spots on the candidate's behalf, and the Senate Republicans' electoral committee has set aside $50 million for the same purpose.
