Reports of a possible trade involving Marvin Harrison Jr. have drawn attention partly because Arizona held the fourth overall selection in the 2024 draft when the franchise chose him. Among the receivers projected to go early in a draft where six quarterbacks landed within the top 12 selections, Harrison Jr. — whose father, Marvin Harrison, holds a place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame — ranked among the prospects that evaluators widely considered to carry a low floor.
Tension between Harrison and the Cardinals had been building well before the opening of the season, and a slow start to the campaign left his place on the roster in genuine doubt. Where Harrison will land for his next opportunity remains an open question, though his situation has drawn fresh attention to a broader conversation about draft picks from the past five years who did not meet pre-selection expectations.
Players from 2021 and 2022 account for a larger share of those rankings, a reflection of the longer performance records available for athletes from those years. Among quarterbacks and offensive linemen drawing attention for uneven early-career performances are Cam Ward, who has yet to show the anticipated development at the position, the Jets' tackle Olu Fashanu, and Atlanta's Michael Penix, each of whom has posted inconsistent results through their opening seasons in the NFL.
Tasked with fortifying their offensive line, Las Vegas Raiders personnel selected Alabama's Alex Leatherwood at pick 17 in the 2021 NFL Draft. Leatherwood's tenure in Las Vegas amounted to a single season before a waiver ended it, an outcome that aligned with concerns some had raised about the selection at the time of the draft. Leatherwood's time on Bears rosters in 2022 gave way to two straight years on practice squads, leaving him without a game appearance across the four seasons since.
Three wide receivers — Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave — were taken within the first 11 picks of the 2022 draft, clustering early-round receiver selections at a pace that stood out against historical norms. Selected with the 16th pick out of Penn State, Jahan Dotson arrived in Washington as a receiver whose production profile sat below that of the draft class's top options at the position. By the time the 2026 season placed him with Atlanta, Dotson had suited up for three different franchises across five years, and his per-season receiving totals had yet to reach 50 catches or 524 yards.
Among quarterbacks taken in the 2021 draft class — a group that appears repeatedly across that ranking — Justin Fields sits at the bottom of the tier, his time with both the Bears and the Steelers having produced stretches of promise without sustained consistency. Fields has yet to establish reliability as a passer across multiple teams, a reality that factored into Chicago's decision to select Caleb Williams with the 2024 first overall pick. Spending a season behind Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City is expected to allow Fields to work on his throwing mechanics ahead of the next stage of his career.
Quarterback Kenny Pickett landed at No. 20 in Pittsburgh's 2022 draft, a slot that placed him ahead of where a broad cross-section of pre-draft evaluators had ranked his readiness for the first round. During his first two seasons, Pickett displayed moments that pointed toward a capable game-management role, before an injury and a subsequent benching in favour of Mason Rudolph ahead of the playoffs ultimately ended his time with Pittsburgh. Since that decision cost him his starting position, Pickett has spent time as a reserve with three separate franchises, most recently lining up behind Bryce Young on the Carolina roster.
Of all non-quarterback players tracked across the past five years, Harrison — a wide receiver on the Arizona Cardinals roster — sits at the bottom of a performance-versus-projection measure, with every name placed above him in that ranking belonging to a quarterback. Arizona's decision to pass on both Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze in favour of Harrison, combined with the elevated expectations that came with his prospect profile, has placed his early struggles with the Cardinals under a sharper spotlight. Across several coaching staffs and with more than one quarterback, Harrison's attempts to establish himself did not take hold.
Of the two top-ten selections general manager Joe Schoen made in his inaugural 2022 draft, offensive tackle Evan Neal — taken from the New York Giants' perspective — has produced the more disappointing outcome. Aiming to shore up pass protection for Daniel Jones, the Giants selected Neal out of Alabama, though he encountered difficulties across several positions and, during the 2023 season, drew attention for public comments directed at fans who had booed him — telling them he considered himself a lion indifferent to the opinions of sheep, and suggesting his detractors were more likely employed flipping burgers and hot dogs. Neal's attempt at a positional shift to guard did not produce better results, and he was subsequently released before finding a spot on the Raiders' practice squad.
Minnesota's plan to build around J.J. McCarthy at quarterback — releasing Sam Darnold following a 14-win season to install the younger signal-caller as starter — did not produce the foothold the organisation had anticipated, even with a well-regarded offensive line, a capable receiving corps, and head coach Kevin O'Connell in place. In exchange for a fifth-round draft pick, McCarthy moved to a new team, with the Giants recouping what compensation the trade market would bear.
To move up in the 2021 NFL Draft and select Trey Lance at quarterback, San Francisco surrendered three first-round picks. Repeated injuries compounded the disruptions Lance experienced during his college years, a period when the COVID pandemic had already limited his progress and his time at North Dakota State had left him with ground to make up. Brock Purdy, who had entered the 2022 draft as its final selection, went on to claim the starting quarterback role for the 49ers. Moved to a reserve role, Lance is currently part of the Chargers' backup depth.
When Indianapolis selected Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, the quarterback arrived with a relatively thin college résumé from his time at Florida. His play drew attention for flashes of natural ability, yet a pattern of uneven performances brought him to the bench on more than one occasion, and a moment near the goal line when he left the field citing fatigue added to the distance that grew between him and those around him. Richardson spent multiple years on Indianapolis's roster as a backup, with the franchise unable to attract trade offers that reflected his pedigree as a top-five draft selection.
Heading into the 2021 season, the New York Jets held the second pick in the draft after a year that ranked among the franchise's most difficult stretches in recent memory — one spot too low to claim Trevor Lawrence, who went first to Jacksonville, yet close enough for general manager Joe Douglas to select Zach Wilson out of BYU at number two. Reports attributed to Wilson's 2022 outing against the Patriots pointed to missed assignments on routine plays and friction with teammates over how accountability for the result was handled, with observers noting a gap between his physical attributes and his on-field decision-making. A quarterback move that brought Aaron Rodgers to the roster in 2023 under Douglas ultimately fell short of its aim, leaving Wilson to step back in and navigate what proved to be another underwhelming campaign. Wilson's time as a starter ended with his departure from the Jets, and across three subsequent teams no starting role has come his way.
