In its latest assessment, Moody's projected that Jordan's real GDP growth rate would climb gradually toward 3% by the close of the decade, noting that the country's economy had held up despite ongoing instability across the wider region. In a routine review of Jordan's sovereign credit standing, Moody's put forward a forecast that the country's output would weather growing turbulence across the region, with real GDP growth on a path toward 3% as the current decade unfolds.
Moody's projections, as outlined in the report, place Jordan's real GDP expansion at 2.7% for 2026, with that pace expected to climb toward 3% as the decade advances, underpinned by forward movement on infrastructure development and a broadening of cross-border trade activity, Syria among the partner markets in view.
Three pillars underpin Jordan's standing in the agency's credit assessment: the robustness of its institutions overseeing economic and fiscal policy, the breadth of international financial and technical backing it receives, and its ability to draw on a substantial pool of domestic savings. Those advantages run up against a set of constraints identified in the assessment: debt levels that leave little fiscal breathing room, an economy with narrow scope for growth, unemployment that has stayed elevated, social pressures that have been building, and a neighbourhood defined by shifting political tensions.
Moody's noted that Jordan's economy had weathered regional conflict pressures with reasonable resilience, drawing on varied growth drivers and a redirection of some area trade flows through the Port of Aqaba. Tourism income held broadly flat in nominal terms across the opening seven months of 2026, with a rise in visitors from regional and Gulf markets absorbing much of the shortfall left by fewer arrivals from Europe and the United States, the agency reported.
Elevated energy costs tied to the armed conflict are expected by Moody's to weigh on government efforts to bring public finances into balance and bring down debt levels. Projections place the government's debt load at 83.6% of GDP in 2025, with that share expected to ease to roughly 81% over the following two years.
Moody's evaluation of Jordan's credit profile lifted the economic strength component from an initial Ba2 reading to Ba1, underpinned by a forecast that annual output growth will climb toward the 3% range, with infrastructure spending, a phased reform agenda, and deeper regional trade ties all contributing to that trajectory. A fiscal strength score of B2 was also attached to the assessment — up from an opening mark of B3 — with the Jordanian dinar's longstanding peg to the US dollar noted as a buffer that keeps the government's exposure to exchange-rate swings in check.
After applying those upward adjustments, the scorecard band for Jordan moved to a range of Ba2 through B1 — an improvement from the prior Ba3-to-B2 span — with the country's assigned rating sitting inside that revised band, according to Moody's. Moody's attributed Jordan's Baa1 score for institutional and governance strength to a track record of durable policymaking, pointing to the country's capacity to push through fiscal adjustments and deploy forward-looking measures when external pressures arise.
The rating agency placed Jordan's credit outlook at stable, describing it as a counterweight between upside and downside pressures on the country's financial standing, while projecting that spillover from regional hostilities would stay largely contained. Broader reform measures across the Jordanian economy carry the capacity to draw greater volumes of foreign capital into the country, which in turn could push growth rates beyond what current projections anticipate and leave Jordan better positioned to absorb both domestic pressures and disruptions originating abroad.
Pathways to a higher rating, as laid out by Moody's, would require the government to pursue structural changes capable of lifting medium-term economic output, pulling unemployment lower, and alleviating broader social strains, while also steering public debt — alongside contingent liabilities tied in particular to the water and electricity sectors — onto a declining path. Sustained relief from the geopolitical strains that have pressed on Jordan's growth prospects over time would put a ratings upgrade within reach, Moody's indicated.
In clarifying the outcome of its routine review cycle, Moody's noted that the exercise carries no weight as a fresh credit rating action and should not be taken as a signal of one arriving any time soon. According to a statement from the agency, the ratings committee convened on October 9, 2026, and the conclusions drawn from that meeting were formalised in a document carrying a publication date of October 16, 2026, representing Moody's view as of that point in time.
