With the Israeli election roughly two months away, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been seeking to determine whether he will secure an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Netanyahu faces challenges in his electoral bid as the country's longest-serving prime minister, with polling data indicating that his alliance of conservative, religious, and nationalist parties may fall short of a parliamentary majority. Some analysts have argued that a loss of office could limit Netanyahu's ability to influence the legal proceedings in which he faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.
Polling data indicates that Trump holds considerable support among the Israeli public. While no single individual can guarantee Netanyahu's electoral victory, a public endorsement from Trump would likely provide a political advantage, according to analysts. Trump has declined on multiple occasions to publicly back Netanyahu, noting this week that refraining from involvement in Israeli elections would be the more appropriate course, though he left open the possibility of endorsing some candidate.
Reports indicate that, although Trump is said to have a positive personal rapport with the Israeli leader, he holds reservations about the policies pursued by Netanyahu's government. Though Trump has not publicly commented on Netanyahu's role in drawing the United States toward conflict with Iran, there are indications he may harbour reservations about the optimistic portrayal of a joint military outcome. A decision from Trump on the matter has yet to be reached, and a number of events unfolding over the next few weeks are expected to influence his position.
Poll data suggesting Netanyahu could lose to Gadi Eisenkot has reportedly been shared with Trump for review. Trump has limited familiarity with Eisenkot, and there is no certainty that a different prime minister and leadership team would prove more straightforward to work with.
The window before the Israeli election has provided Trump with potential negotiating advantages given his deal-oriented approach to governance. Jared Kushner wrapped up separate rounds of talks in Cairo with Hamas representatives and in Israel with Netanyahu, centred on a plan to demilitarise Gaza. Reports indicate that Netanyahu's agreement to the Gaza proposal could be positioned as a prerequisite for receiving open backing in the Israeli election. For such an outcome to materialise, Netanyahu would need to navigate both his own reservations and the entrenched resistance from within his governing coalition over Gaza.
The outcome of the election carries substantial personal consequences for Netanyahu, as analysts note it may determine whether he retains his position or faces prosecution. Reports also point to a possible shift in the working relationship between Trump and Netanyahu. Such a result could lead Trump to regard any incoming administration as a less obstructive partner than Netanyahu's government has been. Unverified accounts indicate that the opposition conveyed communications to those close to Trump, urging him to withhold an endorsement of Netanyahu.
Trump has historically shown a preference for active involvement rather than remaining on the periphery. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu is under any illusion that the former holds unilateral sway over the result of an Israeli election, though earlier administrations did exercise a degree of influence.
In 1992, former President George H.W. Bush withheld $10 billion in housing loan guarantees from then-Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, citing settlement policies — a decision that some analysts have argued weakened Shamir's domestic political standing and may have been a factor in his electoral loss that same year. In 1996, President Bill Clinton welcomed Shimon Peres to the White House for an official visit that took place just months ahead of the Israeli prime minister's electoral contest against Netanyahu. Peres received fewer votes and did not prevail.
During his first term, Trump took several actions that bolstered backing for Netanyahu. Outdoor advertising across Israel depicting both leaders was used to reinforce the argument that Netanyahu alone could secure ongoing American backing. Two weeks before Israelis cast their votes, the administration gave formal recognition to Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and hosted Netanyahu at the White House. Reports indicate that, in the course of his second term, Trump has urged Israel's president to grant Netanyahu a pardon in connection with the criminal charges he currently faces at trial.
The extent to which Trump chooses to back Netanyahu carries notable implications for the broader relationship between the two leaders. The unresolved situations in Iran and Gaza, along with Netanyahu's resistance to joint efforts aimed at addressing both conflicts, have presented challenges for the direction of policy. Reports indicate that Trump has expressed displeasure with Iran's position on negotiations and with Netanyahu's stance on the proposals his administration has put forward regarding Gaza. According to reports, Trump has directed criticism at both former President Joe Biden and Netanyahu when seeking to assign responsibility for the situation.
Netanyahu faces political pressure to maintain a cooperative relationship with Trump and avoid any impression of diplomatic friction between them. Reports indicate that Netanyahu will likely push for commitments beyond a simple declaration of backing, with several approaches put forward — ranging from urging Trump to commit to another decade-long military aid agreement to receiving Netanyahu at the White House ahead of the Israeli election for a formal announcement. Neither option would be uncomplicated for Trump, with opposition growing within his own ranks, particularly from Vice President J.D. Vance, who has reportedly grown impatient with Netanyahu over Trump's Middle East policies and foreign aid.
Netanyahu is reported to place greater importance on securing Trump's endorsement than Trump himself, who is said to be preoccupied with domestic affairs and reportedly views the Israeli leader as having offered insufficient cooperation on Iran and Gaza. Absent any concession from Netanyahu, analysts expect Trump to take a limited approach regarding the Israeli election. Should Netanyahu prevail, Trump would likely attribute the outcome to his own prior actions on behalf of Israel, according to analysts. Should a defeat occur, analysts have noted that Trump would likely attribute the outcome to Netanyahu's failure to follow his direction.
