Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke publicly about the country's economic difficulties at a time when U.S. sanctions are restricting its trade, while American naval forces patrol the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard vessels from other nations transporting oil through the waterway. In recent weeks, Tehran's influence over the energy chokepoint has diminished as vessel movements increase, particularly along a southern corridor hugging Oman's coastline.
Concerns about the state of Iran's economy have been voiced with increasing frequency by Pezeshkian and other politicians within the government who hold more moderate positions. Speaking to state media on a Friday broadcast, Pezeshkian acknowledged that the country faced widespread difficulties — including inflation, unemployment, and broader economic pressures — while maintaining that public support remained intact, even as official data showed inflation had climbed past 80 percent, with prices on certain staple foods doubling.
According to IMF projections released in April, Iran's economy is forecast to contract by 6.1% over the course of this year, a decline not seen in several decades. A labor ministry official put the total of positions eliminated by late May at over one million, while Pezeshkian remarked that possessing missiles and bombs held little practical value, and he further noted that goods, including fuel, had stopped entering the country.
The maritime blockade has curtailed both outbound oil shipments through the country's ports and inbound deliveries of refined petroleum products that the country relies upon, despite holding substantial crude reserves. Fuel supply disruptions have led to queues at filling stations, a situation compounded by heavily subsidised prices that tend to drive up demand.
Pezeshkian outlined plans to reduce fuel consumption and raise prices, while noting that the measures would need to remain within limits, adding that those who depend on petrol for their livelihoods should not face undue hardship, and that people already under financial strain should not bear additional burdens. He stated that many individuals are already under considerable strain, and that applying additional pressure could push them beyond their limits.
Pezeshkian estimated that purchasing power had fallen sharply, though analysts note this figure represents his administration's own assessment rather than independently verified data. According to data from Kpler, Iran's crude oil export volumes in August dropped by over 80% relative to the same period the previous year.
Following the reinstatement of the naval blockade, Central Command reported on Friday that forces had intercepted 82 cargo ships, incapacitated three vessels and conducted boarding operations on two others to verify adherence to the measures. Pezeshkian noted that some people argue sanctions have no effect, adding that he was at a loss for how to respond to that position. "I simply want to note that characterising sanctions as ineffective contradicts the available evidence," the official stated, as the military continues to expand its naval presence while simultaneously reducing Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a statement from Central Command, naval personnel had finished removing underwater mines from international shipping lanes through the strait. Goldman Sachs data puts combined shipments of crude and refined petroleum products from the area at between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day. According to Kpler, petroleum shipments out of the Gulf region have rebounded to approximately 70% of their pre-conflict volumes.
According to government sources, roughly 10 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Omani corridor via that strait, a route under military protection. According to a document, a fortnight of aerial strikes weakened Iran's radar networks and maritime monitoring capabilities, allowing vessels to pass through at night without being tracked, their location beacons switched off. Tankers have been able to conduct repeated trips back and forth, transferring their oil cargo to other vessels for onward delivery to buyers.
Iranian forces have continued targeting vessels in the area, though maritime traffic has not been substantially disrupted. On Sunday, military strikes hit Iranian rocket launcher systems that were in the process of being set up to deploy underwater mines through the strait.
Writing on X, Eurasia Group's Iran and oil analyst Gregory Brew argued that Tehran had overreached in July by resuming attacks on shipping through the strait's southern corridor, that the memorandum of understanding had subsequently broken down, the blockade had been restored, and the United States had achieved a measure of progress in reopening the strait without a new accord, while cautioning that circumstances remained subject to change and that the chain of events, from his perspective, pointed to a miscalculation of strategy on Iran's part.
