A draft steel policy put forward by the government sets out a target of 604 million tonnes of crude steel production capacity by 2047, nearly three times the approximately 220 million tonnes the country currently holds. Projections laid out in the draft National Steel Policy 2047 place finished steel demand at 505 million tonnes by that year, with per capita consumption forecast to reach 302 kg.

Under the new policy, a framework for reducing carbon output from steelmaking sits alongside measures to broaden the supply of iron ore and coking coal in line with projected demand. Taken together, those inputs account for somewhere above two-thirds of what it costs to produce a tonne of steel.

Iron ore production meets most of India's domestic needs, whereas coking coal — required in full by the country's industry — is sourced from abroad. Under the policy, emission intensity across the steel industry would need to fall from its present level of 2.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide for every tonne of crude steel produced down to roughly 1.54 tonnes by 2047, a trajectory aligned with the country's broader commitment to reaching net zero emissions by 2070.

Expanded capacity is projected to push steel exports up by 45 million tonnes. Forecasts place iron ore consumption at 772 million tonnes by 2047, up from the 299 million tonnes recorded in 2025.

Overseas iron ore assets and joint ventures form the cornerstone of the procurement strategy outlined in the plan, which also addresses domestic supply chains and the transport networks needed to move ore from pit to processor. Among the proposals contained in the draft is a network expansion of slurry pipelines — conduits that move iron ore suspended in water — as a way to shift freight volumes away from roads and railways and improve the overall efficiency of the logistics chain.

Forecasts point to coking coal consumption reaching 236 million tonnes, a volume roughly three times current levels. With domestically sourced coking coal covering only around eight per cent of national needs, the draft document sets out a four-pronged response: expanding home-grown mining operations, building out coal washery capacity within the country, locking in long-term procurement agreements with suppliers, and deploying artificial intelligence to fine-tune the blending of coal stocks.

Manganese, limestone, and comparable inputs that the steel industry depends on are set to remain within the scope of policymaking, with an eye toward securing those resources over the long term.

Four pillars underpin the plan's direction: tighter controls on energy consumption, a greater share of electricity drawn from renewable sources, expanded use of scrap metal in steel production, and a gradual shift toward both hydrogen-based processing and carbon capture technology. Among its provisions, the framework targets higher-grade steel varieties — stainless and speciality grades among them — with the aim of reducing the country's reliance on overseas raw materials and foreign technology.

Updated Indian Standards and revised conformity assessment processes are the two tools through which the quality of domestically produced steel is set to be raised. Upgrades to digital infrastructure, the harmonisation of data standards, and the wider uptake of Industry 4.0 practices — underpinned by artificial intelligence systems built on trust and autonomous production technologies — are identified in the draft as areas requiring attention.

Cross-border partnerships within the steel industry are expected to receive greater attention over the next several years, with sourcing of raw materials from a wider range of suppliers, the flow of traded steel, and the exchange of new technologies each drawing growing focus. The draft outlined plans for India — ranked among the world's top two nations in both steel output and consumption — to work alongside other countries in advancing the industry.