Ship-tracking figures compiled by Kpler placed India at the top of Russian crude oil destinations through September, even as volumes flowing into the country dropped by roughly 29 per cent against July totals — a pullback attributed to Chinese refiners buying more Russian barrels and tightening the pool of available supply.

Crude oil sourced from Russia flowed into India at a rate of roughly 1.82 million barrels daily during September, outpacing the 1.49 million barrels per day that China took in over the same period. After touching 2.6 million barrels per day in June and 2.57 million the following month, the volume of crude flowing into India eased back to 2.02 million barrels per day by August.

Production levels have been easing at a time when tariffs and financial penalties are being used to discourage countries from buying Russian oil. Kpler's senior modelling manager, Sumit Ritolia, noted that tighter Russian supply availability and intensified competition from Chinese buyers have each contributed to the easing of India's purchases, meaning Washington's trade actions account for only part of the picture.

Demand for Russian crude among refiners in China has grown over recent months, driven in part by tighter availability of Iranian oil, a shift that is adding pressure to an already constrained global supply pool.

Vessel-tracking data compiled by Kpler points to India's purchases of Russian crude holding at a range of roughly 1.8 million to 1.9 million barrels per day through October. The ongoing flow of Russian crude into India has persisted even as the United States has pushed to steer buyers away from that energy supply.

Legislation bearing the name of Lindsey O. Graham — targeting Russia and Iran through sanctions — received a presidential signature and took effect in September 2026. The legislation would allow import duties of up to 100 per cent on goods from countries that buy Russian oil, though any decision to impose them — and at what level — falls to the president to make. Two of the nations that stand to be affected by the purchasing disruption are India and China.

Rising costs at the pump prompted a reassessment of the country's position on energy imports from Russia. A deal disclosed by Trump on October 9 called for Russia to channel over 300,000 tonnes of diesel into both domestic American and broader international markets, with further deliveries set to follow. Sanctions on Russian fuel were relaxed on a provisional basis by the administration as part of the arrangement, with the move intended to bolster available supplies and hold down prices before voters headed to the polls in the November midterm elections.

Objections from Ukraine and a number of European governments centred on the argument that ongoing purchases of Russian energy would direct further revenue toward Moscow while that country remains at war with Ukraine.

Venezuelan crude has worked its way back into India's oil import basket during the current year, carving out a share of purchases that had largely gone unfilled throughout the preceding period, even as cargoes from Russia continue to flow. Data from Kpler show that volumes on the move picked up pace starting in April. Shipments of Venezuelan crude bound for India averaged roughly 250,000 barrels per day through August, climbing to about 257,000 barrels per day the following month.

Of the two destinations, the US drew the greater share of supply, with inflows running at roughly 452,000 barrels per day through August before climbing to around 563,000 barrels per day in September.