Quarterly results for fast-moving consumer goods companies are forecast to hold up reasonably well, according to Abneesh Roy of Nuvama Institutional Equities, though he flagged that El Niño conditions and drought-affected regions of India warrant continued attention from investors tracking the sector.
Three factors underpin his forecast for profit growth in the latter part of the financial year: formalisation tied to goods and services tax policy, sustained purchasing activity in rural markets, and the prospect of capturing additional market share — a projection he maintains despite the pressure that higher input costs are placing on food company margins.
Roy noted that the July-September earnings period looked set to open on a favourable footing, with Bajaj Consumer, Nestlé India, and CCL Products among the names to watch, while beverage producers Varun Beverages and United Breweries stood to gain through the October-December period should temperatures remain above seasonal norms. He added that a positive surprise in results was expected to materialise within the week.
Projections attributed to Roy place Bajaj Consumer's top-line expansion at roughly 25% and its EBITDA gain at around 46%, with Nestlé India's revenue and EBITDA both seen advancing in the vicinity of 20%.
Data from Vishal Mega Mart — where roughly ten detergent labels had disappeared from retail shelves — lent weight to the position put forward by Roy: that larger, formally structured FMCG operators have been absorbing market share previously held by smaller regional players. Roy attributed this to cost pressures from inflation, currency depreciation, and stricter GST compliance having narrowed the space available to those businesses, though he noted that re-entry remains open to them if they choose to rebuild their operations. According to Roy, established FMCG brands with broad market recognition stand to benefit from the pattern as it persists.
When questions arose about El Niño and dry spells affecting Maharashtra and Karnataka, Roy pointed to a decade of historical records showing no strong link between rainfall shortfalls tied to El Niño and the growth of FMCG volumes. State government assistance schemes and a rise in rural spending power have, according to Roy, helped soften demand pressures and kept volume growth on a steadier footing.
Rising farm input costs, he noted, carry the potential to weigh on profit margins at certain businesses. Tighter profit margins for food and dairy producers are anticipated, with analysts at Roy's firm pointing to a drop in milk volumes across Maharashtra linked to constrained fodder supplies.
On a company-by-company basis, Hindustan Unilever and Marico are forecast to deliver solid quarterly results, whereas ITC, United Spirits, and Colgate-Palmolive India face the prospect of tighter profit margins over the same period, according to Roy.
Steady rural consumption, an expanding share of market activity, and the ongoing shift of FMCG activity into the formal economy are among the factors Roy sees underpinning volume growth across the latter half of FY2026-27, though prevailing weather patterns remain a variable he identified as worth monitoring.
