On Wednesday, October 14, aviation regulators in Mexico disclosed that a formal document from their US counterpart — the Federal Aviation Administration — had been passed to the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC), listing 21 points requiring attention if the country's top-tier aviation safety classification is to be maintained. At stake in that rating is whether Aeroméxico — which serves as Mexico's national carrier — along with budget operators Volaris and Viva Aerobus, holds the authorisation needed to expand service into the United States.
Existing routes operated by those carriers would remain intact under such a scenario, yet permission to expand into new US destinations would be withheld — a restriction that previously applied from 2021 through 2023 — should the identified findings go unaddressed by Mexico. Responsibility for granting operating licences and conducting regulatory oversight of airlines within Mexico falls to the federal body known as AFAC.
According to a report published by the Mexico City newspaper El Universal, the document details an evaluation that FAA inspectors conducted in Mexico during August. A review conducted by the FAA turned up 21 observations across 339 items examined, as detailed in an agency statement that both El Universal and the news outlet Quadratín subsequently published.
Spanning technical, operational, and administrative ground, the materials bring together rules, circulars, and manuals alongside the agency's programmes for inspection, staff development, and training. Designed to evaluate nations rather than individual carriers, the FAA's International Aviation Safety Assessment programme provides the framework under which this audit falls. The process examines whether a nation's civil aviation authority measures up to the technical benchmarks set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the United Nations body responsible for overseeing global air travel standards.
Fieldwork for the Mexico air safety review occupied the five weekdays stretching from 10 August through 14 August. A television news outlet, broadcasting on 17 August, reported the agency's timeline at roughly two months for delivery of the completed report.
A team of FAA inspectors is scheduled to arrive at AFAC in December, where their review will focus on the steps taken in response to all 21 observations. A determination on Mexico's air safety standing is expected from the FAA in February 2027, according to a report by El Universal. Retaining its Category 1 standing — the FAA's top-tier aviation rating — depends on whether the agency addresses those findings. A downgrade notice in February remains a possibility unless adequate oversight of its airlines can be demonstrated.
According to the AFAC announcement, the country retains its Category 1 standing, leaving its carriers free to build out routes and flight frequencies into the United States, provided each new service clears the required approval process beforehand. Tania Carro Toledo, a deputy secretary at the infrastructure and transport ministry known by its acronym SICT — the body with oversight of the agency — told reporters gathered at an aviation forum that the ministry was putting in considerable effort toward achieving a positive outcome, remarks delivered in the hours before the report came through.
Separately, FAA regulations allow carriers from a Category 2 nation to continue operating routes into the United States at existing capacity while subject to heightened FAA monitoring. Under the terms of that arrangement, expanding or altering their US-based operations is not permitted — the one pathway forward being a wet-lease agreement with a carrier holding US or Category 1 certification.
On 25 May 2021, the FAA downgraded the country to Category 2, and that regulatory shift defined the circumstances confronting Mexico at the time. On 14 September 2023, following a period of technical assistance provided to AFAC spanning just over two years, the FAA reinstated the highest available rating. Throughout that period, ticket sales under their own airline codes on routes operated by Mexican carriers remained off-limits for US-based aviation companies.
Following the reinstatement, Jorge Nuño Lara — who held the transport portfolio in Mexico at the time — conveyed to a prominent television outlet that the country's three biggest carriers had submitted requests for additional routes into the United States. Four corridors set to open under Volaris's schedule from December 1 will tie Guadalajara, Puebla, and Querétaro to Washington Dulles, Atlanta, Chicago, and Las Vegas.
Three Mexican carriers — Aeroméxico, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus — were identified by a broadcast outlet as the airlines that would face consequences under any potential downgrade. An independent aviation analyst noted that reduced supply in the international air travel market could drive ticket prices higher on cross-border routes, pointing to a comparable pattern that played out from 2021 through 2023.
Those 21 observations have yet to be released to the public. No specific date for the trip planned in December has been made public. A television reporter noted that active audits left the FAA without a position to share on the topic, and the agency's findings from February have yet to be released — a timeline that remains unresolved. No details have been provided about the number of inspectors or the level of funding that will be put toward meeting the deadline.
