Legislation that would levy taxes on the wealthiest Californians is headed to the November ballot, drawing endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and interest from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in extending the concept to the federal level, while a coalition of opponents has formed with the aim of blocking its passage.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has positioned himself alongside entertainment industry figures, Silicon Valley executives, and Republican lawmakers in opposition to the proposed tax measure.
Under Proposition 40, individuals holding billionaire-level wealth in California would face a one-time 5% surtax on those assets, with the bulk of the funds raised earmarked for healthcare and payments structured across as many as five annual installments starting in 2027. If approved by voters on the Nov. 3 ballot, the measure could shape congressional discussions or serve as a model for other affluent states.
Financial backing for the proposal comes from the Service Employees International Union and United Healthcare Workers West, with congressional support from Sen. Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Ro Khanna, whose district covers Silicon Valley in California. Among those backing the effort are advisors connected to Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, while the largest single individual contribution — $201,000 — came from Saikat Chakrabarti, who previously served as chief of staff to Rep. Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
Those lawmakers, alongside Sanders, are among the congressional voices pushing to tax the accumulated wealth of billionaires. Robert Dempsey, political director of Our Revolution — a San Francisco-based group with Sanders ties that is advancing the proposal — characterised the measure as a structure through which states could exercise direct democratic authority and respond to federal policy shifts, among them projected reductions to Medicaid funding in 2025. Dempsey further noted that when elected representatives fall short of their obligations, the public retains mechanisms for holding them accountable, adding that this observation draws support from both sides of the political aisle.
Polling conducted by Mason-Dixon the previous month placed backers of the proposal at 48 percent, opponents at 39 percent, and roughly one in seven respondents still uncommitted.
Pushback against the measure has come from multiple directions — Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Xavier Becerra and Republican Steven Hilton have both voiced their opposition, as has Newsom, through paid advertising campaigns. Becerra characterised the arrangement as questionable, while Hilton described it as favouritism among insiders that posed a threat to the economy.
Polling conducted by the Manhattan Institute in the opening days of this month put opposition ahead of support by a margin of 50 to 35.
Newsom has taken the position that imposing a wealth tax on high earners could place California at a competitive disadvantage, particularly given that some billionaires have indicated they are weighing a move out of the state. His position favours a federal framework for taxing billionaire wealth, paired with the view that elected state legislators — rather than a voter-driven ballot measure — ought to hold authority over how California's funds are directed.
At the federal level, multiple wealth-tax measures are advancing through Congress — including versions backed by Sanders and Khanna that incorporate elements drawn from Prop 40, and a separate bill introduced by Warren and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) targeting individuals they characterise as holding extreme personal fortunes. Planned Parenthood and the California Teachers Association have each filed formal opposition, citing concerns that the roughly $100 billion in annual revenue the proposal is projected to generate would be directed toward healthcare rather than education funding.
Advertising expenditure tied to opposition of the measure has reached upwards of $100 million, drawn from the personal fortune of Google co-founder Sergey Brin.
Figures from Brad Coker's Mason-Dixon polling operation placed Republican support for Prop 40 at 19% — a number Coker described to a news outlet as one he could not account for. One explanation put forward held that Republican voters in certain areas could be responding to the Democratic pushback playing out on California television, with the question raised of whether support for the measure among those voters might stem from their seeing prominent entertainment-industry figures come out against it.
Data gathered by Coker points to a pattern in ballot measure contests where voters who remain uncommitted until the final stretch have tended to come down against the proposition — a dynamic that Coker indicated would work against Proposition 40's chances of passage.
