Projections published this week in a GF Securities research note, authored by analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang, place Apple as the sole handset maker among its peers forecast to record shipment growth in 2026 — a year when the broader global market is anticipated to contract by upwards of 14%.
Data from IDC and Counterpoint Research, gathered across the preceding weeks, has been tracing how climbing memory prices are feeding through into handset purchase volumes. Figures from Apple pull in conflicting directions depending on which source is consulted, though the company's balance sheet weathered the downturn with greater stability than those of many competitors.
Projections contained in the newly released note by Pu and Huang point toward Apple extending its share of the handset market through 2026, a period during which shipment volumes at most competing device makers are forecast to shrink. Shipment data in the report points to Apple finishing 2026 as the lone handset maker among the industry's largest players to post volume growth, with unit deliveries forecast to reach 257 million — a rise of roughly 4% against the prior year's figures.
Forecasts place Samsung's shipment volume at roughly 241 million handsets — a figure little changed from the prior year — leaving Apple positioned above it in the rankings. The company claimed the top position in that ranking for both 2024 and 2025.
Forecasts place Apple's portion of worldwide smartphone shipments at roughly 24% by 2026, a trajectory that would mark a rise from the 20% recorded in 2025 and the 19% posted a year earlier.
Forecasts from the research point to global handset volumes contracting to around 1.08 billion units in 2026, a drop of 14.2%, with the two years that follow — 2026 and 2027 — identified in the same report as a particularly demanding stretch for device manufacturers, one the findings attribute in part to memory-price inflation nudging makers toward lower production runs and higher retail prices. Where Apple's lineup is concerned, the report notes a restrained uptake for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, a pattern the researchers link partly to competitive pressure from the iPhone Duo and partly to buyer feedback about the handsets' weight.
Hinge-related supply limitations have pushed the projected 2026 assembly volume for the iPhone Duo down to six million units from an earlier seven million, a shortfall that analysts connect to broader manufacturing pressures running across the iPhone 18 Pro range as well. Production targets for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have been trimmed to 72 million units, a figure shaped by technical hurdles tied to the variable-aperture camera system.
Pre-orders for the iPhone Duo went live not long ago, yet anticipated wait times for US buyers have already pushed into late January, with customers in several other markets facing even longer delays before their devices ship.
A "Hold" designation on Apple shares held firm in the report, which paired that stance with a price objective set at $369. Apple's share price settled at $343.46 when trading ended, a gain of 0.43 percent on the session, while every other major technology stock recorded a loss as the broader sector downturn continued.
