All Four Major Australian Banks Now Forecast RBA Rate Rise to 4.6% in September

All four of Australia's major banks — CBA, ANZ, Westpac, and NAB — are now forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% at its September board meeting. The shift follows hawkish remarks by RBA Governor Michele Bullock and a surprise July inflation print. ANZ is additionally forecasting a second hike in November that would take the cash rate to 4.85%. If the September move proceeds, it would be the fourth rate rise of 2026 and the highest cash rate since 2011.

The development came after Commonwealth Bank and ANZ revised their rate cut outlooks earlier in the week, approximately a fortnight after all five top analysts had reversed their previous view that rate increases were over — a reassessment triggered by July's inflation figures. The Reserve Bank's cash rate looks set to rise to its highest point since 2011, with both the central bank's own forward guidance and market pricing pointing to a move sooner than previously expected, following an inflation reading in July that caught forecasters off guard. Testimony from RBA governor Michele Bullock before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, alongside contributions from deputy governor Andrew Hauser and assistant governor Sarah Hunter, has renewed debate on monetary policy, with Bullock noting that returning inflation to target remains a priority given the broader negative consequences of failing to do so. Opposing arguments to a rate rise do exist. With the cash rate at 4.6 per cent — placing it firmly in restrictive territory — variable home loan rates have reached their highest level since 2011, sitting 25 basis points above the pre-easing-cycle peak from before 2026; a September adjustment would represent the fourth rate movement of the year and the fourth consecutive occasion on which lenders have moved in lockstep. Around two months later, Macquarie Bank became the first lender to lift variable rates following the RBA's May decision, which brought the cash rate to 4.35% — a level it has held ever since. NAB and ANZ each raised their fixed rates during the previous week, a decision that may reflect the two banks' expectations ahead of the RBA's Tuesday, 29 September board meeting.

All Four Major Australian Banks Now Forecast RBA Rate Rise to 4.6% in September

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All Four Major Australian Banks Now Forecast RBA Rate Rise to 4.6% in September

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