With a provincial vote approaching on whether to launch formal steps toward an eventual independence referendum, divisions inside the United Conservative Party have drawn growing attention. Premier Danielle Smith has indicated she intends to cast her ballot in favour of Alberta remaining within Confederation, while UCP backbencher Jason Stephan has publicly disclosed that his own vote went toward advancing a potential future referendum on independence.
Transportation and Economic Corridors Minister Devin Dreeshen declined to share his voting intentions when reporters put the question to him on Friday, leaving the positions of cabinet colleagues of Premier Smith on the matter unaccounted for.
Diverging stances within the party have drawn attention to how it is handling a referendum that carries meaningful consequences for Alberta's future. University of Calgary political science professor Melanee Thomas contended that Albertans had not witnessed the kind of open, public debate typically accompanying a consequential political decision, pointing to the absence of anything resembling a general-election-style campaign as evidence — a gap she attributed to internal divisions within the UCP that, if aired openly, could fracture the party. Premier Smith, for her part, maintained that her party's stance remained consistent, even as individual MLAs retained the freedom to voice their own positions.
Following Stephan's public disclosure of his vote, the premier characterised the UCP as a broad coalition of viewpoints, noting that individual MLAs are free to hold differing positions even as the party, caucus, and government continue to advance their stated stance. Her stated intention is to cast a ballot in favour of Option 1, the choice that would keep Alberta within Canada as a province. Her schedule for Friday included taking part in a rally held in support of Canada.
Stephan, who holds the Red Deer-South seat in the legislature, has staked out a contrasting position. His vote went to Option 2, a choice that would instruct the provincial government to launch the constitutional steps needed to put a future binding referendum on Alberta's potential separation from Canada to a public vote. Stephan has contended that backing Option 2 does not automatically translate into an endorsement of independence itself.
On earlier occasions, he put forward the position that Ottawa ought to take Alberta's grievances into account, and that keeping Canada together remained his preferred path forward. In a post shared on social media, Stephan laid out his position that the province's ties with the federal government require restructuring, contending that Alberta remains bound by constitutional arrangements that make any removal of equalization payments effectively unachievable. He characterised Option 2 as a lever for pushing the federal government to confront what he regards as unresolved structural grievances within the federation, stating that the measure would put Ottawa on formal notice. In a written message, Stephan expressed the view that the approach was the correct one.
According to Thomas, the referendum debate has grown entangled with party lines, with backing for Option 2 drawing disproportionately from voters who identify as conservative. She also contends that Smith's political base draws together people who hold a range of views on Alberta's relationship with the rest of Canada. Thomas posed a hypothetical about what would happen if a party leader, during an election campaign, chose not to campaign and instead pointed voters to a position statement posted online, and expressed doubt that voters would find such a response acceptable.
Thomas noted that compelling Smith to publicly advocate for Option 1 could generate internal divisions, and added that she holds little sympathy for the premier in that position. She also observed that engaging with separatist movements carries political consequences that tend to surface over time, and that a path forward exists that stays within acceptable boundaries.
The question of how Dreeshen intended to cast his vote came into focus when a reporter from a prominent television news outlet put the choice to him directly — asking whether he supported Alberta remaining within Canada or pursuing separation from it. Dreeshen urged Albertans to take part in the referendum, pointing to the volume of mail-in ballots already received as an indication of broad voter engagement, with his statement noting that hundreds of thousands of ballots had been submitted through that channel. Pressed a second time on his voting intentions, Dreeshen left the question unanswered.
A press secretary identified as Khalo brought the exchange to a close by thanking those present for their questions and indicating that the group needed to move on. A reporter identified as Villani then put a pointed question to Dreeshen, asking whether his silence would stand as confirmation that he supported separation. Khalo intervened again, stating that the issue had been dealt with and that time was limited. Dreeshen represents Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and has a background that includes volunteer work on Donald Trump's 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, along with photographs of him wearing a Make America Great Again hat and attending Trump campaign events.
Thomas argued that voters had a right to expect cabinet ministers to take a clear public stance on a question carrying such notable consequences, and that a pattern of staying quiet on the matter pointed to concerns about electoral backlash and the risk of fracturing support across different factions within the UCP base. Questions about Dreeshen's intended referendum vote have been raised by one broadcaster on multiple occasions, and no direct answer on the matter has been provided.
NDP Deputy Leader Sarah Hoffman contended that the UCP's approach has left questions about Alberta's place within Confederation unresolved, creating conditions in which separatist sentiment has taken hold. Hoffman contended that putting a referendum to Albertans carries the potential to widen existing social divides at a moment when the province is navigating both economic pressures and political uncertainty, and stated that even raising the prospect of separation puts Alberta's economic standing and its position within the federation at risk in ways she views as unwarranted — a position that puts her at odds with Premier Smith, who has backed the referendum process while maintaining that she wants Alberta to stay in Canada.
Hoffman raised the referendum's price tag as a concern, pointing to health care and education as areas where those funds could instead be directed. She called on Albertans to take a clear stance on the question of provincial membership in the federation, adding that staying within Canada offered the strongest path to advancing the province's interests. Hoffman's position was that talks with Ottawa offer a workable path to resolving the province's grievances, making any move toward a separation process unnecessary in her view.
What voters will actually decide through the referendum falls short of a direct verdict on Alberta's independence. The question put to voters is whether the provincial government ought to initiate the constitutional steps that would be needed before any future binding referendum on separation could take place. A vote for Option 2 would not deliver independence on its own — rather, it would trigger a further sequence of steps, with an additional referendum needed before Albertans could cast a direct ballot on separation from Canada.
Stephan's broader argument rests on that particular distinction. His position has been that backing continued membership in Canada need not preclude wanting a referendum on independence held in reserve as a tool for extracting concessions from the federal government.
Thomas anticipates that divisions within the UCP will persist beyond the referendum — whatever its outcome — as rival factions within the party pull in different directions over its future course, and noted that the situation is likely to deteriorate before any resolution takes shape. The referendum, in her view, has placed Smith in a position where two competing pressures pull against each other: holding onto voters committed to Alberta's place within Canada while preventing fractures inside a party whose members are divided on the question of independence.
