Victorian Premier Warns of Coalition-One Nation Government Ahead of State Election

Victorian Premier Ben Carroll has placed the prospect of a Coalition-One Nation government at the center of Labor's re-election campaign ahead of November's state election. New polling from Redbridge places One Nation at 25 per cent on the primary vote, ahead of Labor at 24 per cent, with the Coalition leading at 29 per cent. Liberal leader Jess Wilson has stated she is focused solely on winning majority government and is not concerned about One Nation's rise. Political analyst Kristy McSweeney described Labor's messaging as a targeted campaign aimed at retaining support in Melbourne's outer western suburbs, where infrastructure delays and population growth pressures have strained traditional Labor loyalty.

Since becoming Victoria's premier in July, Mr Carroll has made the prospect of a Coalition–One Nation alliance a central plank of Labor's campaign for re-election, a strategy that has gained traction as the minor party's support has risen in the state, and he told a broadcaster that he would oppose any such arrangement at every opportunity, arguing that this outcome would materialise in November if Labor were to lose government. When questioned about One Nation's expanded vote share, Mr Carroll expressed reservations about any potential alliance between the Liberal Party and One Nation, arguing that such an arrangement would work against the interests of working people. Redbridge insights adviser Kristy McSweeney — a former political operative who contested the Western Australian seat of Swan for the Liberal Party at the 2022 federal election — contended that Mr Carroll was tailoring his One Nation communications toward disenchanted Labor voters weighing a change in allegiance, and that this represented a strategy rooted in voter anxiety, given Labor's weakened primary vote and its sustained third-place position behind the Liberals and One Nation across polling data over the previous six months, a pattern that had persisted through his leadership transition. Ms McSweeney argued that Labor's outreach was aimed at residents of Melbourne's western suburbs, where longstanding supporters had become frustrated with infrastructure failing to keep pace with the area's population growth, and that the party was telling those communities a vote away from Labor would deliver a One Nation-Liberal Coalition government — an outcome she characterised as incompatible with the values of the area's diverse outer-suburban population.

Victorian Premier Warns of Coalition-One Nation Government Ahead of State Election

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Victorian Premier Warns of Coalition-One Nation Government Ahead of State Election

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