Those familiar with the matter indicate that assessments within the administration point to a reduced probability of a military move against Taiwan before 2028, notwithstanding Xi Jinping's reported directive for armed forces to be prepared for such an operation by 2027. Contributing factors, according to two serving US officials, one former US official, and a person with knowledge of the situation, include setbacks to military preparedness stemming from an internal anti-corruption drive, along with a desire by Chinese leadership to observe the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 election, which certain officials in Beijing believe could produce a government more open to reunification with the mainland.

Sources indicated that a military response from Beijing could become more probable from 2028 onward, particularly if the Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive electoral victory in Taiwan and President Lai Ching-te retains office — a prospect one anonymously cited official described as likely to make that year "pretty sporty."

Lai, who took office two years ago, and his Democratic Progressive Party support a separate political identity for Taiwan, independent of China — a position Beijing has consistently contested, maintaining that the island forms an inalienable part of its sovereign territory. Taiwan rejects Beijing's territorial assertions, maintaining that the island's population alone holds the right to determine its political future.

This evaluation, which had not previously been made public, represents an updated position from the longstanding view held by officials that Xi had directed his armed forces to be prepared for a potential military seizure of Taiwan by 2027, the year marking the centenary of the People's Liberation Army's establishment. Beijing has maintained that the use of military force to bring Taiwan under its authority remains an option, though no official confirmation of a 2027 operational readiness directive has been made public.

No statement was forthcoming from the Pentagon. Neither the Chinese embassy in Washington nor Taiwan's representative office there had provided any response by the time of publication.

In a recent address, Xi spoke about Taiwan and described efforts to advance peaceful cross-strait ties toward what he termed "reunification." Prior assessments from the intelligence community had flagged reservations on the part of Beijing. A document published in March as part of an annual threat evaluation noted that Beijing had not formulated a plan to seize Taiwan by force in the near term and continued to favour a non-military resolution of the dispute where feasible.

Washington remains Taiwan's principal international supporter and arms provider despite the absence of formal diplomatic recognition, while government representatives offered divergent views on whether Beijing might treat the 2028 presidential election as a potential trigger for military action. Three of the sources noted that Beijing may also be weighing the results of the upcoming vote in the United States, partly in light of growing public opposition to overseas military involvement, though a separate official indicated that Beijing viewed both major parties as broadly united in their positions on Taiwan. The official noted that, while China may hold preferences regarding the 2028 US election, that factor carries less weight today than it would have roughly 15 years ago.

Trump has indicated that a Chinese military move on Taiwan is unlikely during his time in office, citing a conversation with Xi Jinping in which the Chinese leader reportedly gave assurances that no such action would occur under his watch. Trump offered sparse remarks about Taiwan following his meeting with Xi in Washington the previous week, noting only that the subject arose during their discussion and that Xi was aware of where he stood.

Beijing regards Taiwan as its foremost unresolved territorial matter, describing the island as an inseparable part of its national sovereignty, and has demanded the cessation of weapons transfers from the United States to Taiwan. Following his visit to Beijing in May, Trump has withheld approval of a proposed arms package valued at approximately $14 billion, characterising it as a tool for leverage in negotiations; the longstanding approach has been to supply Taiwan with sufficient weaponry to resist an attack long enough for allied forces to intervene.

According to officials, Xi has not abandoned the objective of equipping the People's Liberation Army with the capacity to seize Taiwan by force before the end of next year. According to those familiar with the matter, the anti-corruption drive within China curtailed the armed forces' ability to achieve its planned objectives over the preceding year.

Following his assumption of power in 2012, Xi launched a wide-ranging campaign targeting corruption and party discipline. Tens of millions of people across the country's extensive administrative apparatus have faced formal investigation, with numerous high-ranking party, government, and military figures among those removed from their positions. The People's Liberation Army has been among the organisations targeted by the campaign over recent years.

Following a series of removals and disciplinary proceedings, only two members of the seven-seat Central Military Commission remain in their posts, one of whom is Xi, who holds the position of chair. According to a government official, the scale of China's military drills in the previous year was reduced relative to those conducted over the prior few years. Although performance levels showed some improvement during the current year, the unnamed official reported that commanders within the Chinese military remained dissatisfied with overall readiness levels.

The official noted that, based on assessments of recent conflicts, a swift offensive would be necessary to prevent any prolonged engagement, while also acknowledging that too many logistical and operational elements remained unresolved for what would likely rank among the most complex military undertakings attempted since the Second World War's amphibious landings.