In late February, Donald Trump initiated military action against Iran with stated objectives: regime change, dismantling of military and nuclear infrastructure, and encouraging internal dissent among the population. Following one week of conflict, the president indicated willingness to conclude hostilities only through Iran's complete capitulation.

An agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was reached by the administration on Sunday. The president announced via social media that a vital shipping channel—which carries more than 20 percent of the world's daily oil—had been cleared for vessel passage and petroleum transport after being obstructed during hostilities that raised energy prices and disrupted commerce.

The administration's decision to pursue military action alongside Israel has positioned it in a difficult situation regarding potential leadership change in Iran. Iran endured several weeks of sustained aerial attacks from two highly capable military forces, with its government maintaining a firm stance and gaining additional negotiating power following the hostilities.

The government has leveraged its location near the Strait of Hormuz to interfere with the transport of oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, and other agricultural commodities, potentially affecting worldwide food supplies. Iranian officials recognize that direct military confrontation with American forces is unfeasible, yet a previous administration demonstrated that economic leverage through strategic pressure remains a viable option.

The agreement anticipated for formal completion Friday in Geneva will not bring the conflict to a close. The arrangement represents a two-month prolongation of the truce negotiated on 8 April between the two nations, though the waterway remained closed after a naval deployment prevented Iranian vessels from transiting the area. Repeated rounds of talks broke down due to ceasefire violations and fluctuating positions on whether to pursue an agreement or resume hostilities.

The final text of the most recent agreement remains unpublished, and negotiators postponed the most contentious issues to subsequent discussions. The negotiations are scheduled to finish within 60 days following the agreement signed on 19 June, though they may extend for months or potentially years.

The agreement between the two parties secured a minimum two-month window for diplomatic negotiations to address matters that military action had failed to settle. Though both sides currently lack interest in full-scale conflict, the possibility of renewed hostilities between the two nations remains. Numerous unresolved issues persist – the very topics that representatives from both countries addressed in Geneva just two days before hostilities commenced on 28 February.

Oman facilitated the discussions, which included Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi alongside two close Trump associates: Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Jonathan Powell, serving as the national security adviser, was present at the discussions, though the extent of his involvement remains unconfirmed.

Powell regarded Iran's proposal to limit its nuclear activities as both unexpected and noteworthy enough to warrant further diplomatic engagement rather than immediate military action, according to reports. Tehran's willingness to make similar nuclear enrichment concessions in future talks remains uncertain.

Iran's government has gained confidence after withstanding the killing of senior officials and extended periods of intensive attacks. During the conflict's opening phase, coordinated aerial operations resulted in the deaths of over 30 Iranian senior officials and the country's top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Early battlefield successes fostered expectations that a rapid campaign might topple the post-1979 administration.

Leadership figures in Iran expressed support for the system and swiftly appointed Mojtaba, Khamenei's son, to the position of supreme leader. Khamenei's son receives support from officers within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a military organisation that has expanded its role in the nation's economic and political structures.

During forthcoming discussions, military and governmental entities from Tehran are expected to seek sustained authority over the Hormuz waterway, potentially maintaining charges levied on vessels for navigation-related services within the passage. The president asserts that passage through the strait will remain toll-free, although Sunday's agreement only suspended fees—introduced when hostilities began—for a sixty-day period.

The US is expected to negotiate future agreements concerning the waterway with Iran and neighbouring states such as Oman. Representatives from Tehran have proposed charging what they characterize as navigation and security service fees for vessels transiting the waterway, with an adviser to the parliament speaker noting that Iran and Oman maintain exclusive authority over such charges, which officials indicated would persist regardless of future diplomatic arrangements, though permitting such fees would present diplomatic complications for the administration given the strait's longstanding tradition of unimpeded passage.

Government leaders and their teams should understand that negotiations might not return circumstances to how they were before the conflict began. The military intervention by the Trump administration strengthened Tehran's position, and officials there are expected to demand greater compensation for any agreements going forward.

Beyond the Strait of Hormuz's future status and restrictions on Tehran's nuclear program and potential, other challenging matters have been postponed to subsequent talks. The discussion includes the handling of Iran's stockpile exceeding 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, approaching the 90 percent threshold necessary for weapons-grade material.

In return for reducing its uranium stockpile and accepting enrichment restrictions compatible with civilian energy generation rather than weapons development, Iran is expected to pursue substantial easing of economic sanctions imposed by Washington and other nations.

Netanyahu has advocated that any agreement include restrictions on Tehran's ballistic missile programmes and its backing of armed groups such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. On 28 February, the president cited these concerns when explaining the decision to initiate military action, stating that the nation presented an urgent danger to citizens.

These matters remain outstanding and have the potential to undermine both the current accord and future talks. Trump has committed to a 60-day cessation of hostilities and appears to be pursuing diplomatic engagement with Iran after previous efforts to destabilize the government proved unsuccessful. Additionally, he holds the position of director at New York University's Center for Near Eastern Studies and teaches journalism there.