Trump indicated he was not prioritising a nuclear agreement with Iran and declined Tehran's most recent proposal, while the U.S. military continued to support oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had reportedly put forward a proposal for a week-long ceasefire, under which it would restore full access to the strait and return to negotiations over its nuclear programme. In return, the United States would lift the naval blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and remove restrictions on Iranian oil exports.

Trump told reporters at the White House on Saturday that Iran had expressed willingness to negotiate and that he would welcome a deal. One news outlet also reported that he had privately informed aides of plans to resume airstrikes on Iran following the midterm elections, once elevated fuel costs carry less electoral weight.

American officials have assessed that the strategic advantage has shifted in their favour and away from Tehran. A naval blockade and additional financial sanctions have placed considerable pressure on Iran's economy.

Petroleum markets have nonetheless held up more firmly than many forecasters anticipated. Oil prices have stayed elevated, with processed fuel costs absorbing a steeper impact, yet trading conditions have not reached disruptive levels despite the conflict involving Iran and the strait entering its eighth month.

The waterway remains only partly blocked, with oil shipments having increased over recent weeks under naval escort. On Wednesday, Tanker Trackers reported that crude oil volumes crossing the U.S. blockade threshold had reached 13 million barrels per day, a figure the organisation described as having doubled within a month. The organisation attributed part of the increase to Saudi Arabia rerouting shipments back through the Persian Gulf rather than via the East-West Pipeline and Red Sea export terminals.

Strikes on Saudi oil facilities by fighters affiliated with the Houthis and Iraqi armed groups led Riyadh to suspend use of that alternative route. Tanker Trackers linked the recent uptick in oil shipments from the Gulf region to daytime passages through the Strait of Hormuz, facilitated by coordination with U.S. Central Command.

According to petroleum analyst Rory Johnston's most recent seven-day average calculations, approximately 13.5 million barrels per day were passing through the strait. These volumes remain considerably short of pre-conflict levels, pushing worldwide stockpiles closer to minimum thresholds, though they approximate the temporary high point recorded in July, when a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran permitted shipping traffic to recover. The ceasefire broke down and vessel strikes resumed.

Naval forces carried out escort operations along the disputed strait under cover of darkness, seeking to reduce exposure to missile and drone attacks. Overnight rules on vessel movement reduced the daily throughput of the waterway. Following those events, the armed forces launched multiple strikes that diminished Iran's capacity to monitor merchant ships attempting to navigate the waterway, and explosive ordnance disposal teams removed mines from the waterway's primary shipping channel.

As Iranian pressure on maritime traffic in the strait eased, a government official reported to a news outlet earlier this month that naval forces and Gulf nations had moved to conducting tanker passages through the waterway during daylight hours. Transporting oil through the strait has become costlier due to persistent security risks in the region. Shipping firms are required to offer elevated compensation to crews accepting the additional exposure, while insurance premiums have also risen accordingly.

Johnston observed that although substantial oil volumes continue to move through the Strait of Hormuz, the per-barrel extraction cost remains elevated at an estimated $30 to $40 or more, excluding military expenditure, and that this economic structure becomes unviable if global prices decline or Gulf producers attempt to raise their own prices.