Inflation figures for September are set to come from Statistics Canada at 8:30 a.m. Ottawa time, with the central bank's newest surveys on business and consumer outlooks due to follow shortly afterward. Ahead of the Oct. 28 rate decision, those readings will offer policymakers their last look at how the economy is holding up against price pressures tied to oil and the gathering strain from trade disputes.

For seven consecutive policy meetings, the rate has remained anchored at 2.25 per cent. Those responsible for setting monetary policy have indicated concern that an extended period of high fuel costs at the pump raises the likelihood of businesses passing on price increases across a broader range of goods and services.

Labour figures released for September — covering both job losses and a climb in the unemployment rate — have drawn the attention of a number of economic forecasters.

Persistently elevated price readings combined with a resilient economic outlook in Monday's data releases would keep a rate increase in October within reach for policymakers, even accounting for the weaker employment figures. Benjamin Reitzes, rates and macro strategist at Bank of Montreal, shared that view in an interview, noting that a strong business outlook survey alongside a heated inflation reading would be sufficient to put that option back on the table.

The latest inflation data will factor into whichever path the bank's rate-setters decide to take. Headline CPI readings have lingered near three per cent for several months — a level governor Tiff Macklem has described as above the bank's comfort zone — while underlying core measures sit closer to the two per cent target, even as shorter-term price momentum has picked up.

Analysts are watching whether price pressures could reignite from their current levels. TD Securities macro strategist Robert Both noted that monthly shifts in the bank's trim and median core measures — along with the proportion of CPI components advancing at three per cent or above — would draw his closest scrutiny, adding that a pickup in price pressures within core goods such as clothing and furniture would give him pause.

Two surveys released by the bank — one tracking business conditions, the other capturing household sentiment — are designed to shed light on where Canadians stand on price expectations and their readiness to spend. Positive readings on household and business finances — even against a backdrop of reduced immigration and an ongoing trade dispute with the United States — would go some way toward calming concerns about the pace of economic expansion.

Schleich, who serves as director of economics and strategy at National Bank of Canada, pointed out that any pullback in corporate hiring or capital expenditure could give the central bank reason to pause — raising questions about whether the second-quarter recovery would hold. Schleich added that while businesses appeared to have adjusted well, that picture had yet to be put to the test, and that policymakers would take note if survey data pointed toward rising inflation expectations.

Central banks may put pricing decisions under a microscope, asking companies to account for whether cost increases at the supply level are being absorbed internally or handed down to buyers. Derivative markets were pricing in roughly a 30 per cent chance of a rate increase by month's end, based on Friday morning trading.

Rate decisions at the central bank are not expected to tighten anytime soon, with the prevailing view among economists pointing to rate increases arriving at some point during 2027. Macklem is scheduled to address reporters at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank gatherings being held in Bangkok that Saturday.