Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia does not engage in negotiations with those it classifies as terrorists, a position he outlined after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Ukrainian drone activity would pose a threat to aircraft operating in Russian airspace. Speaking at a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit press conference in Bishkek, Putin said he had no awareness of such statements, though he added that if they were made publicly, they would constitute a declaration of state terrorism.
Ukraine has called for the resumption of talks and direct meetings, while Putin has asserted that Russia does not engage in negotiations with those it designates as terrorists. Putin has since adopted a more entrenched position, following his assertion that Ukraine's strikes on Russian distribution facilities had set in motion consequences beyond control. The aerial threat compounds his opposition to the peace negotiations Ukraine has been seeking.
Putin outlined the losses Russia had incurred during Ukraine's summer offensive, according to his account. He stated for the first time that the conflict in Ukraine has placed a strain on the Russian economy, though he characterised the impact as limited and argued that Russia's military response was inflicting considerably greater economic harm on Ukraine. According to Putin, Ukrainian attacks had put approximately 100 vessels out of action over a 40-day period, with financial losses to Russia amounting to roughly one percent of gross domestic product — damage he described as worth noting, though not devastating. Fatalities were reported among the victims, with nationals of Azerbaijan and Turkey among those who lost their lives.
Industry analysts noted that no methodology was provided for how the one percent figure was derived or what expenditures it encompasses. Putin claimed that Ukraine had triggered an irreversible chain of events and added that the country's economy had since come under pressure as a consequence. Ukraine's monthly trade gap stood at roughly five billion dollars, with inflows of around eight billion dollars against outflows of approximately three billion dollars, a shortfall bridged by financial support from Western partners. Three potential weak points in the economy were outlined: the currency, fiscal, and banking sectors.
Putin stated that any attempt to undermine or destabilise Russia would be met with a forceful response, and that the country stood prepared to defend itself against such efforts. His remarks came in reply to statements Zelenskyy had delivered via a video address the night before.
Zelenskyy issued an advisory to airlines utilising Russian airspace, their insurers, and entities continuing to operate through key Russian airports, stating that such airspace poses elevated travel risks. Unmanned aerial vehicles are expected to appear in the skies above Russia, a factor that authorities say must be factored into planning. Reports indicate that access to airspace over the territory is set to be curtailed, with limited public communication from authorities on the matter.
Zelenskyy stated that the conflict initiated by Russia was restricting access to its own airspace. He stated that drone operations would take place within Russian airspace, which would compel authorities there to impose flight restrictions with growing frequency, and that advance notice was being provided to airlines and partners to prevent harm to civilians, as non-combatants were not among the intended targets.
Diplomatic missions in Kyiv and Moscow received instructions to relay the communication to their respective governments, as did carriers operating flights to Moscow, St Petersburg, and other key Russian cities. Zelenskyy additionally disclosed that Washington had requested Kyiv suspend drone strikes on Moscow for a three-day period during last week's visit by the CIA director. According to Zelenskyy, Washington requested that Kyiv halt drone and missile attacks on Moscow and St Petersburg during the period of 25 to 27 August, a request Kyiv accepted, even as Russian forces continued their bombardment of Ukrainian territory. Additional talks in Moscow were scheduled, a development that Kyiv indicated it would factor into its position.
The question of targeting civilian aircraft has been characterised as a delicate matter, with Zelenskyy said to have been weighing the possibility of issuing such a threat for a considerable period. The announcement follows reports that Ukrainian air defence stockpiles have been declining at a time when aerial bombardment throughout the winter period has already begun.
The distinction between closing Russian airspace and threatening to down aircraft reflects an awareness of the sensitivity of such actions, particularly in light of the July 2014 incident in which flight MH17, a Malaysian commercial airliner, was brought down over Ukraine, killing nearly 300 people on board. Such advisories to insurers function as financial instruments, pushing up war-risk premiums across all flight paths into Moscow and St Petersburg and eroding an airline's timetable without any drone approaching a passenger plane.
Direct assault on a vessel is not the only mechanism at play. The prospect of such action has been sufficient in other contexts to prompt insurers to withdraw coverage, leaving aircraft unable to operate. Flight MH17 was brought down over eastern Ukraine on 17 July 2014, struck by a Soviet-era surface-to-air missile, with all 298 passengers and crew losing their lives. Three men were found guilty in absentia by a Dutch court for their roles in the incident, with judges determining that the missile system had originated from Russia. Widely regarded as the war's most fatal aviation episode, the event has remained a point of contention, with Russia having long denied any involvement.
If a Ukrainian drone were to bring down a civilian aircraft carrying Russian passengers, the propaganda benefit for Moscow could be immediate and considerable, for a country that has spent three years presenting itself as the side upholding international law. The advisory to airlines and insurers appears designed to achieve the practical effect of restricted airspace while placing the formal decision to implement such restrictions on Moscow, mirroring the consequences that Russia's own airspace closures have imposed on others. Its effectiveness will depend on how insurers and their underwriters interpret the language, as well as on whether Ukraine's aerial strikes on Russian airports and fuel facilities continue at a frequency that renders the provision self-evident. Putin's response indicates an intention to treat the diplomatic notice itself — rather than any subsequent military action — as sufficient grounds for abandoning negotiations.
