Leaders of NATO gather in Turkey this week to address questions about the alliance's reliability and sustainability, as European defence budgets draw attention from Washington. The summit starting Tuesday will assess whether Europe can convert increased defence spending into operational capability quickly enough to maintain engagement from President Trump, while also preparing for potentially reduced involvement from Washington in continental security matters.

Allies pledged at the previous year's gathering in The Hague to allocate 5% of their gross domestic product to defence expenditures by 2035, with 3.5% designated for primary defence capabilities and 1.5% for wider security priorities, in what observers considered a notable step forward. This year's gathering in Ankara aims to shift focus from commitments to practical action.

Ulrike Franke, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told a news outlet that the gathering represents a transition from shared responsibilities to a redistribution of obligations within the alliance. The gathering occurs amid expectations that the alliance will sustain assistance to Ukraine while adjusting to battlefield innovations in unmanned systems, aerial defence, and manufacturing capabilities.

NATO leaders confront five key questions at the summit. Following discussions with the White House, governments across Europe have generally acknowledged the need to increase defence spending, boost domestic production, and assume a larger role in managing their own security arrangements.

The alliance has operated with U.S. leadership at its core for 77 years, transforming the matter into both a political and military consideration, according to research from a Washington-based think tank focused on European and Eurasian affairs. Should the United States reduce its involvement without fully withdrawing, European nations would confront the complex task of restructuring their defense arrangements independently, according to remarks made during a media briefing the previous week.

Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, has concentrated efforts on maintaining Trump's involvement while advancing initiatives to redistribute alliance responsibilities. Bergmann noted that alternative approaches have received minimal attention should the United States choose to reduce its level of engagement.

Regarding Europe, it was reported that another focus involves establishing clarity. Should the U.S. choose to reduce its military presence, partner nations require clear schedules and implementation plans for any withdrawal of troops or equipment. This goal becomes more complicated by the unpredictable nature of Trump's previous diplomatic record.

Reports indicate that European nations will seek to present a coordinated position on defence expenditure. Both nations have previously received scrutiny regarding their military spending levels. Both Britain and France acknowledge the necessity for increased action while contending with budgetary limitations.

The increased spending by NATO has already altered the trajectory of defense investment across the continent. The Baltic nations, Poland, and the Nordic region have responded most rapidly, a pattern linked to their geographic position near Russia.

The continent's defence manufacturing sector continues to face limitations from fragmented supply networks, administrative hurdles, workforce gaps and prolonged periods of insufficient funding. Collaborative purchasing arrangements offer the potential to reduce expenses, enhance compatibility between systems, and achieve economies of scale. In reality, administrations continue to prioritise domestic employment, procurement agreements, and revenue generation.

Franke cited defense initiatives between France and Germany to illustrate how domestic political priorities can hinder collaborative efforts, despite the strategic advantages of combined manufacturing.

Discussions in Ankara are anticipated to centre on the conflict, addressing sustained military assistance, the country's domestic defence production capabilities, and lessons the alliance might draw from over four years of intensive combat operations. This development follows mounting battlefield setbacks for Russia, with data showing elevated casualty figures and territorial losses in 2026, according to analysis from the Defense and Security Department at CSIS.

Ukraine has intensified attacks on targets within Russia using drones and missiles, striking facilities related to energy, military operations, and supply routes, which reflects advances in the country's ability to produce weapons domestically.

According to reports, the alliance should reconsider its approach to Ukraine beyond that of an aid beneficiary. Kyiv has become a centre for military technology development, especially in unmanned systems and related countermeasures, with battlefield experience in confronting Russian forces, according to analysis noting the country's technological advantages in these areas. This change could reframe discussions within the alliance from the question of assistance to Ukraine toward the lessons Ukrainian combat experience offers for contemporary military readiness.

The summit takes place after several months of strained relations between the administration and European partners, with the president having expressed dissatisfaction over what he perceived as inadequate European backing throughout the Iran situation. Reports indicated that discussions in Ankara might include Iran. The discussion encompasses potential European involvement in maritime security operations and peacekeeping arrangements, which may include mine clearance activities. However, she noted that these contributions would remain modest and somewhat symbolic, given that European positions have not fully converged with those of Washington.

Franke noted that cohesion among member states would prove important should Trump target individual nations regarding their defence budgets, although differing assessments of security threats across the continent complicate this.

Questions remain about what will happen with future plans. While NATO summits were once held less frequently, they have taken place annually following the commencement of Russia's comprehensive military operation in Ukraine. An observer noted this NATO summit could be the final one during the current presidency, given questions surrounding a potential gathering in Albania and the timing of the 2028 election cycle.

The prospect may heighten the implications. Should this gathering represent the final such event, the stance Trump adopts during the NATO meeting may carry implications extending far beyond Turkey's borders.

The hosting nation's involvement introduces additional complications to the situation. Turkey is expected to highlight its defence priorities and domestic military capabilities at the summit, following the pattern of other host nations.

For President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a positive summit outcome would likely highlight Ankara's regional importance, prevent diplomatic tensions, and bolster arguments for inclusion in defence contracts as European military budgets expand, with analysts noting that access to military equipment and international acceptance of governance practices remain central objectives despite concerns about Turkey's democratic trajectory.

Ankara's potential concerns include reduced access to defence procurement as EU investment increasingly favours European manufacturers, with participation in collaborative initiatives becoming a priority given its NATO membership without EU inclusion. While NATO works to maintain U.S. involvement, accelerate European armament and continue support for Ukraine, Ankara is expected to advocate that any redesigned European security framework must include its participation.