With plans for a long-term human presence on the Moon taking shape, NASA has turned its attention to assessing how meteorite impacts on the lunar surface factor into those preparations. Potential threats posed by meteorite strikes — and what they mean for both crew safety and physical infrastructure — are receiving careful attention from the agency, its administrator Jared Isaacman has indicated.
Those remarks from Isaacman followed a finding by researchers that an asteroid or comet had struck the Moon at some point during 2024. The object, put at a size comparable to a building of around six floors, carved into the lunar surface and left behind a depression measuring roughly 728 feet in diameter and 141 feet deep. Researchers characterise the collision as a once-in-a-lifetime event, though their estimates place the likelihood of a comparable impact at roughly one per century.
Bright flashes lit up the lunar surface on the far side of the Moon during the Artemis II mission, each one produced by a meteoroid — a small fragment of rock from space — colliding with the ground at extreme velocity, a phenomenon the crew aboard witnessed firsthand. Without an atmosphere to slow or incinerate incoming objects, the lunar surface receives direct impacts from whatever travels toward it.
Lunar monitoring teams supplied NASA with a more detailed account of meteoroid impact frequency on the Moon's surface, along with clearer patterns of what those strikes look like when they happen. Additional measurements were gathered from the Artemis II crew, who passed along observations recorded during their time on the mission.
At a Kennedy Space Centre briefing in Florida, Isaacman laid out how NASA plans to handle hazards encountered on the lunar surface. He described the 2024 impact as an occurrence that arises perhaps once every hundred years, noting that this rarity offered some measure of reassurance. Smaller impacts on the lunar surface occur far more regularly than their larger counterparts.
Plans drawn up by NASA point toward crewed lunar landings by 2028, with a continuously staffed Moon base — supported by rotating crews — expected to be operational by 2032. Advancing the technologies that deep space travel will require — including the capability to carry crews to Mars — sits at the heart of what the programme is designed to accomplish.
Four astronauts assigned to Artemis III — a mission scheduled for launch within the coming year — are set to practise orbital rendezvous and docking manoeuvres in low Earth orbit, linking the Orion capsule with lunar lander vehicles under development by both Blue Origin and SpaceX.
Isaacman outlined an incremental development approach, noting that lessons learned along the way would drive a gradual build-up of on-site capabilities, given his view that surface-level enhancements to the lunar base would ultimately be warranted. The final specifications for habitation modules remain open, pending further decisions. The plan described involves building up through incremental steps — running uncrewed robotic landers and various demonstration missions to gather the knowledge needed before attempting anything larger.
The agency's lunar programme envisions a coordinated group of robotic rovers conducting reconnaissance across the Moon's terrain, with survey findings intended to guide decisions on where and how to build future habitats. Environmental factors that pose potential hazards are to be identified and addressed as part of the planning process. Expanding Moon-based operations through a series of dedicated missions has been put forward as a parallel priority.
Turning to the status of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket — which suffered an engine-firing test explosion in late May — Isaacman conveyed that the company had publicly pointed to a year-end timeline and was pressing forward with clear intent. Questioned about whether funding would be directed toward placing astronauts on the Moon by 2028, Isaacman stated that public money was being allocated to that goal, though with an emphasis on doing so as efficiently and responsibly as possible, and that the immediate priority was preparing for the launch of Artemis III.
Isaacman expressed confidence that the authority, funding, and stakeholder backing were in place to carry out the planned work. He characterised the direction being taken as one that can realistically be reached.
