Research cited by Transport for London (TfL) indicates that a 10% reduction in bus speeds is associated with a 6% decline in ridership, a finding that analysts say could affect passenger numbers if journey times increase. The number of annual rail trips made by Londoners has dropped by over 300 million, a fall of 16%, since 2013, even as the capital's population expanded by nearly one million residents.
London's mayor, Sadiq Khan, has acknowledged the matter directly, expressing that bus ridership is a source of considerable concern. Passengers surveyed about their travel habits frequently point to poor reliability as a primary factor behind their reluctance to use public transport.
Figures drawn from Transport for London, the body responsible for overseeing road and rail services across the capital, point to a number of metrics suggesting that bus routes have become slower, shorter, or less dependable. While the Covid-19 pandemic caused a notable disruption in the figures, an overall declining trajectory remains visible across that timeframe. Taken together, the network recorded a mean velocity of 9.18mph in 2025-26, representing a 4.8% decline from 2013-14 and the lowest figure since that baseline was established.
Schedules for bus services have historically been updated to account for traffic conditions across the capital. An analysis of selected routes by transport planning economist Alexander Jan found that average scheduled journey times have grown by around 30 per cent compared with those recorded five decades ago. Buses have continued to fall short of scheduled targets, even with additional time factored into their timetables. On busy corridors operating more than five buses per hour, average waiting times have climbed to 22% above schedule, a rise from 18% recorded in 2018.
Bus passenger numbers recorded their first decline of the post-pandemic period during the previous 12 months. Yearly ridership topped 2 billion throughout the decade from 2010 to 2019, yet recorded just 1.8 billion travellers in 2024. London's bus network has contracted in overall coverage during this period. From 2010 to 2019, TfL bus routes covered roughly 487 million kilometres annually on average; in the three years since, that number has dropped to approximately 460 million kilometres.
London's growing traffic pressures and the mounting competition for road space have placed transport planners under pressure to weigh up the relative merits of different modes of travel. When riders shift away from infrequent bus services, those routes face potential reductions in both scheduling and coverage. One industry representative has described the pattern as a self-reinforcing cycle of deterioration, with reduced frequency leading to lower ridership and mounting pressure on remaining routes.
Findings from multiple studies have documented the same pattern across other major urban centres, including Paris, Brussels, and Lisbon. Research published in 2026 by Imperial College London's Transport Strategy Centre (TSC) documented an ongoing reduction in bus speeds across 15 transit networks spanning Europe, Asia, and North America over the preceding ten years. Bus speeds in Paris, Istanbul, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore have each fallen by over 10% relative to pre-pandemic levels, a steeper decline than that recorded in London.
The TSC report notes that while local circumstances differ, a broader pattern has emerged of rising vehicle volumes and road congestion alongside reduced space available for buses, attributed in part to the reallocation of road space toward cycling and pedestrian infrastructure. The regeneration of Plaça de les Glòries Catalanes in Barcelona rerouted vehicles onto adjacent streets, where reduced speed limits applied and buses received no dedicated priority, with travel durations increasing by over a quarter. Expanding the protected bicycle lane along Sixth Avenue in New York reduced vehicle travel lanes from four to three, and bus speeds during the morning rush hour dropped by 8 percent over the subsequent twelve months.
According to the TSC report, higher bus frequency and dependability attract greater passenger numbers, reinforcing the long-term viability of public transit networks, whereas declining performance erodes ridership and undermines sustainability objectives. The document identifies improvements to bus networks as a key tool for building cities that are fair, environmentally sustainable, and adaptable.
Lengthier travel times carry an added expense. Wage costs for drivers represent the largest portion of bus operating expenditure, meaning that reduced vehicle speeds require a greater number of buses and personnel to maintain equivalent service frequency. Research by the Confederation of Passenger Transport found that a 10% improvement in bus speeds across London could generate £70 million in additional fare revenue annually while reducing operational expenditure by £214 million.
Service reductions and timetable disruptions also fall disproportionately on lower-income households, many of whom depend on bus travel for employment, affordability, or the absence of private transport. Travelling by bus to central London costs well under half the price of a peak-hour tube journey, while properties situated closer to underground stations tend to attract higher prices.
The decline in bus speeds across London has continued even as a succession of mayors have prioritised public transport and invested in upgraded fleets and technology. Bus performance saw measurable gains in the early 2000s, driven by the congestion charge introduced under Ken Livingstone alongside infrastructure upgrades including GPS tracking systems. Under Khan's tenure, the Hopper fare scheme was introduced, enabling passengers to transfer between buses at no additional cost, with a target of transitioning the entire fleet to electric vehicles by 2030.
According to Geoff Hobbs, TfL's director of public transport service planning, commuting behaviour has shifted in the post-pandemic period, with increased remote working, reduced footfall on high streets, and evolving population patterns contributing to lower ridership in certain areas. The rise of e-commerce has contributed to a higher volume of delivery vehicles on London's roads, while school enrolment numbers in certain areas of the city are declining, with some institutions closing altogether.
"Young people are among the heaviest bus users," Hobbs noted, adding that the rise in home deliveries and associated van traffic had created a compounding problem, with vehicles frequently stopping at locations that obstruct the flow of traffic and reducing the number of journeys people make to town centres. Transport for London and bus operators point to two overriding factors: mounting pressure on road space and the frequency of roadworks.
Graham Vidler, chief executive of the Confederation of Passenger Transport, noted that road networks face excess vehicle demand during peak periods. Scheduled disruptions can be built into planning, whereas spontaneous and poorly coordinated road maintenance works fall outside any reasonable forecast, a factor he identified as having likely driven the most notable shift in outcomes.
Seb Dance, London's deputy mayor for transport, has indicated that the frequency of roadworks is increasing, identifying unplanned works in particular as the leading source of disruption. "We've got a problem in London where we've got old infrastructure, whether it's sewage, water, electricity, gas," Dance said, providing context for data showing over 1,000 roadworks are disrupting London's streets on a typical day, driven by a post-pandemic upturn in utility maintenance activity combined with road redesign schemes and repairs to weather-related damage.
Construction works place pressure on road space that has become increasingly contested, with London's cycleway network having expanded fivefold over the past decade — from 90km to 450km. Hobbs acknowledged that bus network performance has been weighed against other priorities, among them public safety and the broader urban environment, noting that compromises are unavoidable. The city has expanded its pedestrian infrastructure and added dedicated cycling routes.
Vidler noted that cycle lanes constructed over recent years fulfil a valuable function, while acknowledging that allocating additional road space to one form of transport necessarily reduces what is available to others. Dance offered a contrasting perspective, noting that an excess of vehicles on the road was the primary issue, while the speaker before had argued that expanding cycling infrastructure would impede bus passengers. "Shifting commuters away from private vehicles towards higher-capacity options such as public transport, buses, and cycling forms part of that approach," Dance noted, adding that the forthcoming phase of TfL's Fusion programme — which will connect traffic signals across the capital via networked computing — aims to improve traffic flow and extend bus priority at junctions where feasible.
A daily-rate charging scheme for roadworks has been rolled out across Transport for London's network and is being extended to borough roads, while Khan has stated that improving bus reliability depends on increasing their speed. Drivers were instructed by the mayor to rest or remain at the depot rather than operate buses lacking functional air-conditioning equipment. Performance-related financial penalties will be put on hold when temperatures reach hazardous levels.
Speed limits throughout London are being reduced, with the 50mph ceiling on busier suburban routes set to drop to 40mph by 2030 and further 20mph zones being introduced across the network, changes that could also affect Superloop express bus services. The circular bus routes serving outer borough communities, renamed and restructured under Khan's tenure, have generally been regarded as a positive outcome. Khan stated that the Superloop demonstrated bus ridership could be grown.
"If you build something worthwhile, people will choose it," said Claire Wright, TfL's head of streets performance, who noted that despite a modest dip in speeds, London's bus network remains the most widely used form of public transport in the city, providing an affordable travel option for residents while also contributing to public health and air quality improvements by reducing the number of private vehicles on the road. A TfL spokesperson noted that bus network performance across London would continue to be tracked to ensure passengers are served as effectively as the network allows.
