Assessments from senior defence officials point to economic sanctions as a source of significant pressure on Iran's government, with internal security bodies said to be on heightened readiness in anticipation of possible public unrest. Reports of unrest across Iran remain unverified, and analysts are divided on whether pressure applied by Washington over the coming months would move conditions past a critical threshold — leaving the population's likely reaction largely a matter of speculation.
At the same time, diplomatic outreach and military activity are being used to reduce Iran's international isolation, accompanied by threatening statements and assertive actions directed at neighbouring states. According to officials, the country has been taking steps to prepare for a range of contingency scenarios, including the possibility of an unannounced military strike by either the United States or Israel.
Airline access for Iranian carriers was curtailed across numerous countries after US-imposed restrictions, which came into force on 23 September, placed Iranian flight routes under new constraints. Four countries — Armenia, Russia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — kept their airspace open to Iranian aircraft following diplomatic engagement on the matter, whereas China pushed back against the sanctions altogether and Turkey scaled down its flight volumes without moving to halt them entirely. Designated flight corridors were established for Iraq, though Baghdad was left out of those arrangements.
Iran's government has also been working to sustain its network of allied groups across the region. Unverified accounts out of Beirut put the figure at around $200 million channelled to Hezbollah in a recent transfer. Advisory support, combat training, manufacturing assistance, and arms transfers directed at the Houthis in Yemen remain active elements of Tehran's foreign posture, alongside maintained relationships with Shia militia networks in Iraq and an ongoing drive to build partnerships aligned against Western interests. Keeping allied forces coordinated in any potential armed confrontation is described as the stated aim.
Over the past week, statements from Iranian officials have pointed to a capability for ground incursions into adjacent territories — a posture that, according to Israeli assessments, carries the potential to broaden instability across the region. Naval mine incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and vessel damage have surfaced alongside those alerts.
Ballistic missile output has been resumed by Iran, according to Israeli sources, with efforts also under way to repair equipment damaged in the conflict and to bring to completion manufacturing lines that were already in progress before Operation Roaring Lion got under way. A defence official described the pace as gradual and hampered by gaps in technical knowledge and constraints on production capacity, though movement in that direction was said to be continuing.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian authorities have moved to establish communication channels — a course of action that, analysts note, reflects an effort to limit external military options and reduce the likelihood of additional strikes on its soil. Diplomatic channels to the United States, Gulf states, and regional intermediaries carried an Israeli position that any unexpected Iranian offensive would draw a notably forceful military reply.
Israeli officials stated that the country's campaign targeting Iran's nuclear programme, ballistic missile capabilities, and defence manufacturing sector has not yet reached its intended end point. Analysts have assessed that a fresh Iranian military move could prompt a response from Israel on a broader scale than the Operation Lion's Roar campaign, potentially extending to infrastructure targets that US-imposed restraints had previously placed off-limits in the interest of limiting the conflict's duration.
Coordination between the IDF and US Central Command has been described by defence officials as operating at a notably elevated level. People in regular communication with their American counterparts have indicated that the president placed the armed forces on an elevated state of readiness, with the possibility of strikes left open until the final moments. Ahead of the US midterm elections, a military move against Iran is viewed by officials as an unlikely prospect barring any offensive action or clear indication of imminent aggression from Tehran.
Armed forces tracking activity across Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and regional waters have kept alert postures in place, prepared to respond to armed action from Tehran or affiliated groups.
