India's Ministry of Steel has released a draft policy framework projecting the country's crude steelmaking capacity will reach 604 million tonnes by 2047 — nearly three times its current level — while finished steel consumption is forecast to climb to 505 million tonnes. The plan sets out objectives around expanding domestic output, securing raw material supply chains, and lowering the industry's carbon emissions.
Under the draft policy's projections, crude steel output would climb from 170 million tonnes in 2025 to 531 million tonnes by 2047, while finished steel consumption per person would rise from 116 kg to 302 kg over the same period. An export volume ceiling of 45 million tonnes forms part of the plan's targets.
The draft policy document underpins those projections with two assumptions: annual GDP expansion of roughly 7 per cent and capacity utilisation running at 88 per cent. Steel sector capacity utilisation reached 77 per cent through the course of 2025.
Scaling up raw material supply to match projected demand forms a central condition of the plan's targets. Under the policy's projections, iron ore consumption would need to climb from 299 million tonnes in 2025 to 772 million tonnes by 2047 — a rise of more than two and a half times — while coking coal requirements are forecast to reach 236 million tonnes over the same period, up from 72 million tonnes, representing a roughly threefold expansion. Manganese ore demand is forecast to hit 34 million tonnes, while limestone and dolomite together are expected to account for 128 million tonnes.
Among the measures outlined in the roadmap for cutting reliance on imported supplies, domestic mining operations and the acquisition of overseas assets both feature as pathways toward greater raw material self-sufficiency — a consideration the document notes given that raw materials account for around 65 to 70 per cent of steelmaking costs. Domestic iron ore production covers the bulk of what the country requires, yet roughly 92 per cent of its coking coal supply is sourced from abroad.
According to the draft document, the plan aims to curtail reliance on imported coal by building up domestic mining capacity, expanding washery infrastructure, acquiring overseas assets, locking in long-term supply contracts, and deploying artificial intelligence tools to fine-tune coal blend ratios.
The ministry noted that India's National Steel Policy-2017 sets out a planning framework extending through the period spanning 2023 to 2031, and that since 2017 the sector has moved on from its earlier footing — domestic output has expanded, while fresh imperatives around cutting carbon emissions, scaling up capacity, reducing reliance on imports, and integrating digital technologies have taken shape alongside that growth. Responses submitted through the ministry's website serve as the formal channel for gathering industry input and recommendations.
Provisions within the plan also call for building out local processing capacity and streamlining the transport of minerals to steelmaking facilities. Iron ore slurry pipeline throughput is projected to climb from roughly 18 million tonnes per annum today to upward of 299 million tonnes per annum by 2047.
Slurry pipelines currently account for just one per cent of iron ore transport, with rail and road carrying the bulk of movements. The draft policy document identifies a cluster of overlapping obstacles to expansion — among them multiple regulatory clearances, land acquisition difficulties, community opposition, and the absence of a dedicated oversight framework — while also noting that such pipelines draw on substantial water resources and raise environmental questions. To address these hurdles, the draft puts forward a single-window clearance mechanism alongside viability gap funding directed at iron ore and coking coal slurry pipeline projects.
Spare washing capacity for domestic coking coal has gone underused, a gap the draft flags for closer attention. Washing capacity across the sector stands at roughly 39 million tonnes per annum, yet throughput has been recorded at only around 6 million tonnes against feed volumes of approximately 17 million tonnes, leaving yields at 40 per cent of feed processed. Among the measures outlined, the policy covers an expansion of washery capacity, refinements to coal blending and grade mapping practices, and the pursuit of overseas assets to address anticipated demand.
On emissions, the policy framework sets out a target of reducing average emissions intensity in steelmaking from its present level of 2.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel to 1.54 tonnes by 2047 — a drop of roughly 39 per cent. The worldwide benchmark sits at roughly 1.92 tonnes of carbon dioxide for every tonne of crude steel produced, below the emission intensity recorded across India's steel sector. Draft figures cited in the policy document place the steel industry's share of India's total carbon dioxide output at between 10 and 12 per cent.
The transition is structured to unfold in stages. During the opening phase, priorities centre on making better use of energy and raw materials, expanding renewable power sources, and increasing the proportion of recycled scrap fed into production. Over the years that follow, the plan foresees a broader shift toward advanced technologies, with green-hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and carbon capture, utilisation and storage — known as CCUS — gaining ground. Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage technology has also been put forward as a way to handle residual process emissions expected in the plan's later phases.
Under the plan, domestic steel scrap supply would climb from 36 million tonnes in 2025-26 to a projected 123 million tonnes by 2047-48. Under a framework modelled on the Swachhata Abhiyan approach, the plan calls for a coordinated push to gather discarded household goods, outdated products, rubble from construction and demolition sites, industrial assets no longer in use, and vehicles that have reached the end of their serviceable life.
Among the waste-stream categories drawn into the proposed framework are end-of-life vehicles, materials arising from construction and demolition activity, and consumer durables, each subject to extended producer responsibility requirements, with separate provisions covering the recycling of ships.
The proposal envisions a newly formed Steel Industry Safety Council taking on a broad portfolio — occupational health, process safety, disaster preparedness, and the standardisation of safety practices across the sector — with that body positioned as the industry's foremost institutional voice on such matters. A dedicated Steel Industry Safety Directorate, drawing its membership from domain experts across the steel sector, would provide the council with its operational and technical backing.
Automated tracking of below-standard steel imports forms another element of what the plan puts forward. A Steel Digital Centre of Innovation, operating beneath the Steel Research and Technology Mission of India, forms one pillar of the draft's vision for lifting the sector's technological standing, while a national data platform spanning production, quality, energy, emissions, logistics, and raw materials serves as the other.
