Forecasts published in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook — unveiled on Oct. 13 during the annual IMF and World Bank meetings held in Bangkok — put Kazakhstan's inflation rate at 8.2% by 2027, with the country's GDP growth rate anticipated to reach 4.9% over that same horizon. Projections from the IMF put price growth at 11.4% through 2025, easing to 10.3% the following year and tapering further into 2027. Forecasts place the expansion rate at 4.4% for 2026, with that figure climbing to 4.9% the following year.
Joblessness across Kazakhstan is projected by IMF forecasters to hold at 4.6% through 2026, then edge down a tenth of a point to 4.5% the following year. Forecasts place the nation's current account at a surplus of roughly 0.5% of GDP through 2026.
Kazakhstan also features in the document as one of several non-Gulf producers whose expanded output cushioned the market against shortfalls tied to restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The document's examination of how the artificial intelligence expansion is reshaping economies places Kazakhstan among the countries under review. Among nations that export raw materials, the report places Kazakhstan in a group whose outbound shipments of technology-linked products have grown on the back of output from leading Asian manufacturing hubs.
Findings in the report trace how fighting across the Middle East threw worldwide energy supplies into disarray, with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropping to a near standstill during the spring months. Carrying roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil at the time, the waterway's interruption sent prices climbing to $126 a barrel by late March, a figure drawn from data cited within the report. According to the IMF, a rise in output from nations beyond the Persian Gulf helped the market find its footing. Production gaps received partial relief from contributors that included Brazil, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and the United States.
What the document projects globally hinges, in large part, on how events across the Middle East continue to unfold. In its projections, the IMF places the Strait of Hormuz reopening in March 2027, with vessel traffic expected to recover to pre-disruption volumes by October of that year. Forecasts for that scenario place the average barrel price at $96 in 2026, easing to $87 the following year.
A tenth of a percentage point was added to the IMF's 2026 world growth outlook, nudging the projection from 3% — where it had stood in July — up to 3.1%. Worldwide output expanded at a rate of 3.5% through 2025, with forecasts pointing to a pace of 3.4% by 2027.
Spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure has been identified by the fund as a partial counterweight to the economic drag from elevated energy costs and the ongoing armed conflict in the Middle East, contributing to a more favourable near-term outlook. Nations whose output spans both the development of artificial intelligence infrastructure and the manufacture of hardware that underpins it have been placed in a higher tier of growth projections. Four nations — South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand — are named in the document as falling within that category.
Projections from the IMF's Research Department, where Petya Koeva Brooks serves as deputy director, indicate that government and business responses to the oil shock helped avert a slower global growth trajectory heading into 2026, as reported by a news outlet. Among the responses put into practice were tapping stored reserves, sourcing from alternative suppliers, and cutting back on oil use.
The fund's own projections note that the policy gains are losing momentum as hostilities drag on. Gains tied to artificial intelligence spending are narrowing to a smaller pool of recipients. A document cited by one broadcaster puts the number of nations driving nearly all worldwide expansion at 32 — down from 54 in April — a concentration that accounts for 95 percent of total global output growth. Roughly 47 percent of the world's economies have had their growth outlooks cut by the IMF in the period that followed.
Forecasts place annual output expansion for the United States at 2.3% through both 2026 and 2027, with household expenditure, reductions in taxation, and investment flowing into artificial intelligence cited among the underlying drivers. Projections from the IMF now place euro-area output growth at 1.1% for 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 0.9%, while the British economy is anticipated to expand at a rate of 1.3% over the same period. Outlays directed at artificial intelligence rank among the drivers underpinning those forecasts, as does a broader upturn in European defence budgets.
Forecasts place annual expansion of the Chinese economy at roughly 4.5 percent through 2026, easing to around 4 percent the following year. Elevated fuel costs are putting a drag on consumer activity at home, even as export performance holds up and continues to underpin the broader economy. Forecasts place India at the front of the pack among large economies, with annual output growth running at around 7 percent.
Petroleum-dependent nations across the region are contending with mounting economic headwinds. A 3.3% contraction in Saudi Arabia's economy during 2026 is now anticipated by IMF analysts, marking a turn away from the 1.7% expansion their July outlook had indicated. Projected output across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates points toward pronounced economic downturns, according to the fund's forecasts.
Forecasters place worldwide price growth at 4.7% for 2026, with that figure expected to ease back to 4.1% the following year.
Questions about where artificial intelligence spending is headed have drawn attention in the IMF's latest assessment. Quicker uptake of the technology stands to lift worldwide GDP by around 0.6 percentage points before 2029 arrives. On the downside, should those anticipated productivity improvements fail to arrive and investment drop steeply, worldwide economic output stands to be 1.1% smaller by 2028, with the United States alone looking at a potential contraction of 1.8%.
Elevated government borrowing, especially among wealthier nations, adds to the broader set of pressures policymakers must navigate. The IMF has called on governments to shore up their fiscal positions and put forward credible strategies for bringing public debt onto a more sustainable path. The fund's chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, noted in remarks carried by a news outlet that the global economy, though it had shown resilience, was approaching the boundaries of that endurance and that the priority now was moving beyond mere survival toward a period of genuine rebuilding.
