The International Monetary Fund trimmed its outlook for Argentina's economy in 2026 on Tuesday, pulling the projected expansion rate down to 2.1% from the 3.5% figure that had appeared in the fund's April assessment. Updated forecasts place Argentina's growth rate beneath both regional and global benchmarks, with the institution's revised outlook also carrying a higher unemployment estimate for the country.

The World Economic Outlook report, carrying the freshly revised projections, was released as the IMF and World Bank opened their joint annual gatherings in Bangkok, Thailand, on Monday. Economy Minister Luis Caputo, Vice Minister José Luis Daza, and Santiago Bausili, who heads the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA), represented the ministry at Tuesday's gathering.

Alongside trimming Argentina's 2027 expansion outlook from 4% to 3.5%, the document still places that figure well ahead of what the BCRA's own Market Expectations Survey anticipates — a poll of analysts pointing to 1.5% output growth in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Growth is projected by the IMF to moderate from its 2025 rate, with underlying economic imbalances edging toward correction over time.

Forecasts point to easing price pressures, a shift in the external balance toward surplus on the current account, and broadly steady jobless figures. Those conclusions align with what the World Bank set out in its twice-yearly Regional Economic Update, published the previous week. Argentina's growth outlook, as projected by the institution, was marked down to 2.1% for 2026 and 3% for 2027, pulling back from earlier forecasts of 3.6% and 3.7% for those same years.

Projections outlined in the document place Argentina's energy industry among the forces expected to underpin broader national economic expansion. According to IMF projections, crude oil will trade at an average of US$96 a barrel through the course of this year, putting it roughly 40% above where prices stood in 2025. Forecast figures point to US$87 as the likely level for the coming year, yet that projected dip would still leave prices well above the range recorded across earlier decades.

Elevated natural gas prices — holding above the levels recorded before tensions with Iran escalated — point toward a period of expanded revenue for companies operating across the hydrocarbons industry. Vaca Muerta, the shale formation that anchors Argentina's oil and gas output, stands to draw greater investor interest as a result.

Rising fertiliser and energy costs are expected to weigh on output across a range of industrial and agricultural supply chains, the report found, as producers in those sectors absorb the knock-on burden of pricier inputs. Global borrowing levels keep climbing and government bond yields sit near their highest points in several decades, conditions the IMF has identified as among the foremost pressures on the international financial outlook.

Borrowing costs for Argentina look set to hinge on an external financial climate that is notably less accommodating than the one the country experienced through much of the previous ten years. Measured expansion in the area's economy adds to the list of hurdles facing the region.

Forecasts from the IMF place Latin American output growth at 2.3% for 2026, rising to 2.5% the following year — rates that trail those projected for Asia. Forecasts point to a deceleration in Brazilian output — from 2.2% in 2026 down to 1.9% the following year — a trajectory that carries weight given the country's standing as Argentina's foremost trade partner. Three forces are identified as weighing on the pace of growth: borrowing costs that have yet to ease as authorities work toward their inflation goals, the fading of government spending support, and unsettled conditions in the wider global economy.