Sam Avampato, 73, is facing an anticipated rise in home heating costs to record levels this winter. As autumn temperatures drop in Hunker, Avampato is now paying $5.99 per gallon for heating oil, a rate he says surpasses his previous high of $4.12 per gallon — a notable increase for a household that has depended on oil heat since 1977 and consumes roughly 275 gallons annually.

Ordinarily retailing at $2 to $2.50 per gallon, the product had climbed to a floor of $5.99 by the time Avampato surveyed his options. He viewed a price correction as likely at some point but not within the coming weeks, so his strategy was to buy only what was necessary while remaining open to the possibility that his read on the market could prove wrong — a position shared by others in the same circumstances.

Households relying on heating oil may face a cost increase exceeding 30%, while those using electricity, natural gas, or propane are projected to see rises of between 5.8% and 9%, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association has reported.

Chemically speaking, residential heating oil shares a composition closely resembling that of diesel fuel, a product that has likewise experienced notable price increases. A year ago, Export Fuel Co. representatives were reducing per-gallon rates on residential heating oil, with the company noting that most customers inquire about pricing for deliveries ranging from 150 to 299 gallons.

General Manager Kristen Zawoyski noted that the per-gallon price had risen from $3.049 the previous year to $5.99 currently, and attributed the broader pricing pressure to a constrained global oil supply that had been affecting customers since February, when the onset of the conflict with Iran coincided with the end of heating season, leaving many households reluctant to place orders amid the price increases that were occurring at the time. Prices had been holding relatively steady, but costs are now climbing again as the heating season approaches.

About one-third of the world's petroleum supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz — a 21-mile-wide channel between Iran and Oman and the sole maritime exit from the Persian Gulf — and the continued closure of the strait has introduced a notable constraint on the flow of oil to international markets.

Both Zawoyski and Cromie, who operates Glassmere Fuel Service in West Deer, noted that many customers who would ordinarily be placing orders are instead seeking guidance. Cromie observed that callers are monitoring prices and holding off on purchases in anticipation of a more affordable rate, an outcome he viewed as unlikely, while Zawoyski described the inquiries she receives as resembling consultations driven by uncertainty rather than purchasing intent, with customers asking what steps they should take after hearing news coverage about the Strait of Hormuz and fuel costs.

Both Cromie and Zawoyski noted that a widespread misunderstanding exists around elevated fuel prices generating greater revenue for their businesses. Zawoyski explained that lower prices actually drive higher purchase volumes, meaning the companies now move considerably less product while needing to visit three or four times as many properties to deliver equivalent quantities, and that operational costs across many areas rise automatically alongside fuel prices.

Cromie stated that the company strives to treat customers fairly while being unable to forecast future conditions, and pushed back against the perception held by some that the circumstances had worked in his favour. "Revenue has declined, and the broader consequences of that trend are unfavorable," Cromie said.

The typical home heating customer, as described by both Cromie and Zawoyski, tends to be an older person living in a rural area with a fixed income. Cromie also stated that a harsh winter like the previous one could create considerable difficulties for the business and its customers, some of whom may qualify for assistance through the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP).

Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, noted that many households are entering winter with budgets already stretched by elevated summer cooling costs and home heating expenses rising at more than double the rate of inflation. His organisation has called on Congress to increase LIHEAP funding from $4 billion to $7 billion.

Throughout 2024, power providers terminated electricity supply on roughly 13.4 million occasions and gas supply on around 1.7 million occasions due to unpaid bills. Over 275 electric and natural gas utilities have either raised rates, obtained regulatory approval for increases, or submitted proposals for higher charges since 2025, with projected additional costs to consumers potentially reaching $101 billion by 2028. Wolfe stated that lawmakers should not wait for cold weather to act, calling for an immediate boost to LIHEAP funding.

Access to power and heat has been characterised as a basic human need. Wolfe also stated that upgrading the electrical grid and accommodating rising demand can be achieved without placing financial strain on households, provided that cost considerations remain central to planning decisions.

Traders and buyers are seeking clarity on when the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, as negotiations have yet to yield a resolution. Cromie expressed the view that placing pressure on global oil markets through coordinated strategy was something the Iranian government had been working toward over an extended period, adding that efforts to counter opposing measures had, in his assessment, proven notably effective.

Cromie described Iran as holding a dominant position at present, characterising that position as unlikely to shift. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association forecasts home heating cost increases of 5.8% for natural gas, 8.7% for propane, 9% for electricity, and 31.3% for heating oil.