Gold prices held largely steady on the day ahead of Friday's US employment data release, even as the metal remained on course for a second consecutive weekly decline, with a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields continuing to weigh on the metal's appeal relative to yield-bearing assets.
Spot gold traded near $4,181.59 per ounce at 0833 GMT, broadly flat on the day, while the metal was still down more than two per cent across the week. Gold futures contracts in the United States edged up to $4,212, a gain of around 0.2 per cent.
Traders kept a close watch on the September US payrolls data, scheduled for release at 1230 GMT, as the figures were expected to shed light on the path of US monetary policy and borrowing costs. Nikos Tzabouras, a senior market analyst at Tradu.com, noted that gold had drawn buying interest ahead of the non-farm payrolls release, with a below-forecast PCE inflation reading having trimmed expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases.
August's consumer price figures, published Wednesday, came in under analyst forecasts, easing pressure across financial markets. Traders trimmed their bets on a further Federal Reserve rate rise after the milder-than-anticipated data came through.
Derivative markets, as tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool, placed the likelihood of a rate increase that month at roughly 26 per cent, a figure that had retreated from around 70 per cent just days before. Policymakers were set to draw on the jobs data as part of their broader effort to weigh price pressures against the overall health of the US economy.
Economists polled by the news outlet placed the median forecast for September nonfarm payrolls at around 90,000 new positions, well below the 162,000 jobs the economy generated the previous month. The country's central bank had lifted its benchmark borrowing rate for the first time in three years during the month prior.
Disagreement among Federal Reserve policymakers over the direction of monetary policy has persisted. Policymakers remain divided on the path forward, with one camp pushing to hold off on any rate move until more economic indicators come in, while another contends that further tightening is needed to pull inflation back toward the central bank's stated target.
Movements in the dollar and the US Treasury market have each influenced gold's price. Headed into Friday's close, the dollar looked set to finish the week with net gains, a move that pushed up the price of gold in local-currency terms for buyers outside the United States. On Thursday, rates attached to both 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds climbed to peaks not recorded since 2002.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out that gold sits at a crossroads: on one side, rising fixed-income returns make holding a yield-free asset increasingly costly; on the other, the possibility that bond yields — kept elevated by swelling sovereign debt burdens — may at some point unsettle broader financial stability could work in the metal's favour.
Spot silver edged up 0.6 per cent to $61.21 an ounce in other precious metals trading, while platinum added 0.7 per cent to close at $1,735.90. Palladium's price climbed by 1.7 per cent, reaching $1,191.20. Taken together across the week, all three metals posted net losses even after Friday's uptick.