Ongoing armed conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have contributed to volatility in global energy markets, a development that has drawn attention from White House officials. With the midterm elections drawing closer, President Trump and his administration have fewer policy options available to address oil price volatility, which some analysts have linked to mounting electoral pressure on Republican congressional majorities.
No signs point to a near-term resolution of the conflict in Iran, now entering its eighth month. Chances of ending the conflict dimmed after a strike on a pipeline in Saudi Arabia forced it offline for a number of weeks. A militia affiliated with Tehran has reportedly extended its influence over a second key global energy transit point.
Attacks on Russian territory, including oil refineries, have disrupted diesel fuel output. Vessels navigating the strait have been targeted by attacks. Fuel costs tracked by AAA show unleaded gasoline at $4.32 per gallon and diesel at $6.32 per gallon nationally.
Crude oil reached $109 per barrel on Monday, its highest point since May. Former White House economic adviser Stephen Moore described the prevailing mood within the current administration as one of considerable anxiety, saying numerous officials are uneasy because the matter remains unresolved. Moore described elevated energy costs as a burden on the broader economy that has begun to offset some of the administration's achievements, such as growth in retirement accounts and equity markets, and said limited policy options exist given the nature of global oil supply. An independent energy adviser noted that the administration's inability to influence prices is the primary driver of internal concern.
Moore added that the administration has yet to identify effective policy solutions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated the Saudi East-West pipeline — taken offline following repeated drone strikes — would resume operations in the near term, without specifying an exact date, and noted that further details would be released by Tuesday.
At the G20 energy ministers' gathering in Dallas, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated that elevated prices were a short-term matter rather than a lasting concern. Burgum sought to draw a distinction between the price increases that followed the joint strike on Iran in February and the previous administration's policy of expanding renewable energy output as a replacement for fossil fuels, stating that the former represented a short-term disruption rather than a deliberate strategic shift in energy direction.
In a series of Truth Social posts on Monday, President Trump asserted that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were continuing, and that nations he described as having contributed nothing to the effort would be required to pay the United States after the conflict ended, further claiming the country had historically prioritised the interests of other nations over its own. In a separate post on Monday, Trump addressed the possibility of a nuclear agreement with Iran, stating that the country had expressed interest in reaching a deal and that he would decide whether the United States would pursue negotiations, a prospect he described as one his administration remained open to.
Trump additionally asserted that Ukraine had committed to refraining from targeting energy infrastructure in Russia, with Russia having made a reciprocal pledge, and attributed the broader rise in global diesel prices primarily to the conflict between the two nations rather than to Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy promptly denied that any agreement of that nature had been reached.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers indicated that the administration was taking steps to address energy costs, adding that the president aimed to expand domestic energy production and reduce household expenses.
Domestic fuel processing facilities have begun showing operational fatigue following an extended period of running at peak output to keep energy supplies steady. A power failure at an ExxonMobil fuel station in Illinois is being investigated by authorities. On Monday, ExxonMobil released a statement through spokesperson Liza Steger indicating that the company is reviewing both the refinery's current condition and the factors behind the power disruption.
An anonymous company insider noted that the outage pointed to the possibility of further diesel price increases, explaining that refineries operating above 95 percent capacity for around six months, combined with below-average diesel inventory levels, meant any disruption to the supply system would likely produce a considerably larger price movement than would otherwise be expected.
Wright expressed confidence that petroleum and processed fuel shipments from the Middle East would pick up pace within the following fortnight, and anticipated that domestic refiners would boost production driven by biofuel blending mandates.
