A Quaest poll published Wednesday put Flavio Bolsonaro, who holds a Senate seat, marginally ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with the October 25 presidential runoff vote approaching. Polling data placed Bolsonaro — a politician on the right of the spectrum and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — at 46 per cent, with the incumbent Lula drawing 44 per cent of voter backing.
A two-point polling gap in Bolsonaro's favour nonetheless places both candidates within the survey's plus-or-minus two-point margin of error, rendering the contest statistically indistinguishable. Poll data from Brazil's presidential race point to a contest where neither contender has pulled far enough ahead to claim the advantage.
Conducted in the days following Brazil's first-round presidential ballot, the Quaest survey represents the first polling data gathered after Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula — an outcome that a number of analysts had not anticipated. The vote count pointed to an expansion of the senator's electoral base, leaving two of the country's main political opponents to contest a tightly fought runoff.
The survey found that roughly one in eleven participants intended to either spoil their ballot or stay away from the polls entirely. The one per cent share of voters who had yet to commit to a candidate represented a narrow pool whose choices nonetheless held the potential to tip the balance when ballots were tallied.
A four-day polling window running from October 10 through October 13 gave Quaest a sample of 2,154 respondents, yielding a fresh picture of where voter support stands ahead of the runoff contest between the two presidential campaigns.
Bolsonaro holds a narrow polling advantage as the race moves into its closing weeks, though analysts note the gap leaves little room for error. Closing the gap with voters who stayed away in the first round remains the task before Lula's campaign.
The race also reflects an enduring ideological divide running through Brazilian politics, with Flavio Bolsonaro drawing on the electoral legacy his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, built over years in public life. A new poll released ahead of the October 25 runoff vote points to a contest whose outcome remains difficult to predict.
The gap between the two candidates, once the poll's built-in margin of error is factored in, is too narrow to determine a clear leader at this stage. As election day nears, campaigners on each side are targeting undecided voters while reinforcing the loyalty of those already behind them.
